VMWare Inc.
(NYSE:VMW) shares closed above $100/share on Tuesday marking a new
milestone in its short life as a public company. There is little doubt
that the company is the leader in virtualization but many investors are
concerned about the company's low float, which can exaggerate its price
moves - in both directions!
The VMWare IPO shares several
similarities with companies that went public during the dot-com boom.
First, they kept the stock at a low float in order to spur large price
movements and attract investors. Secondly, they were in a sector that
was pumped up by cheerleaders who continued to talk up the stocks until
the end. And finally, there was obviously a large valuation assigned to
companies that simply couldn't be justified once growth slows.
VMWare
is currently trading with a P/E of 156x, which would require it to grow
substantially in order to be justified. According to Jon Ogg at
247WallSt, "The stock is trading anywhere from 3-times to 5-times the
sales of the entire virtualization market industry-wide to 2010."
Clearly, the stock is trading at a lofty valuation and a low float is
helping to keep shorts away.
It is also interesting to note that
EMC Corporation (NYSE:EMC) doesn't appear to share the enthusiam
exhibited by VMWare shareholders. After all, the company owns 86% of
VMWare and current valuations put the company's EV at $33.45 billion
compared to EMC's EV of $45.7 billion. EMC shares only saw a 50% run-up
following the spin-off announcement.
In the end, analysts will
eventually be forced to bail on this stock but it could take awhile
before reality kicks in. VMWare is definitely in a hot market, but the
company's current valuation surpasses that of the industry itself.
Despite any reasonable growth estimates, it is impossible to keep
running. Combined, these factors make VMW a stock
worth watching!
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