Broad indexes are up 120% this year; the average IPO makes 192% in its
first day; even blue chip stocks are nearly doubling every year; and
there are more IPOs than ever before in history. Sound familiar? No,
it's not the dot-com boom of 1999. Rather it's the manufacturing boom
being seen in China right now... and it's the next big bubble.
Just
how crazy has it become? Well, China Shenhua Energy recently IPO'd and
rose 87% in its debut to which its chairman said he "was not totally
satisfied". Low floats, spectacular valuations, investment
restrictions, and a greedy market has made China the next big bubble
and many say is approaching critical mass.
Bullish investors
insist that the Chinese bubble differs greatly from the dot-com boom in
the United States. After all, these companies are actually generating
real profits with real businesses supported by a robust economy.
However, bears are quick to point out that the valuations are still
just as bad with some companies like Baidu trading at more than 70x
earnings!
In the end, China is an extremely hot market that
shares a lot in common with the dot-com boom of the 90s in the United
States. Investors in this space should be careful to hedge their
positions and limit their exposure as these valuations can come
crashing down at any time. However, until then, the Chinese market
indexes and ETFs - like FXI - are definitely worth watching!