VMWare
(NYSE:VMW) shares are a third off of their highs today after the stock
hit $84.60. The company managed to lose $15 billion in market cap in
only ten trading days amid a steep market downturn - particularly in
tech. The move has many investors wondering whether or not this company
is really worth the $40 billion market cap that it has now.
VMWare
posted revenues last quarter of $357 million, which was up 88% over the
same quarter last year. Meanwhile, earnings per share tripled to $0.18
per share. However, does this justify a valuation of $40 billion?
Well, assuming that VMWare will raise its earnings 100% for the next
five years and then 50% for another 5 years after that, we can discount
all this future cash flow to a present value of $31 billion.
VMWare
also faces significant competition. Microsoft recently announced its
own initiatives to include virtual desktop tools with its operating
system. And with billions of dollars at their disposal, Microsoft will
likely be able to promote their product substantially more than VMWare.
In
the end, it will be interesting to see how fast VMWare is able to grow
their revenues and earnings. Whether or not this valuation is justified
remains to be seen, but VMW is a stock that is definitely
worth watching!
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