Goldman Sachs
(NYSE:GS) shares are up over five percent today after the investment
banking firm announced that it does not expect to take any significant
asset write-downs this quarter. The news also boosted confidence in
other financial stocks around the market, including Bank of America.
Many investors are hoping that this will signal the end of the credit
crunch.
"We're convinced we have a pretty good grip on [CDO and
mortgage] valuations," said Blankfein at the Merrill Lynch Banking
& Financial Services Conference after some investors voiced
concerns about Goldman's valuations. The CEO assured investors that it
has properly valued its assets. In fact, when the firm isn't certain,
it has traders execute test trades to assign a value that has some
merit.
Interestingly, Goldman also has a bearish view on the US
mortgage markets where rising default rates and a lack of buyers has
caused steep declines in mortgage values and derivatives like CDOs. The
firm reported solid gains on its bets against the mortgage markets and
indicated its belief that things will likely get worse before they get
any better.
In the end, it appears the Goldman made the correct
bet on the mortgage markets by positioning itself as net short. Whether
or not the firm's valuations are correct remains to be seen, but it
appears that the only factor they fail to fully consider is liquidity
(after all, test trades don't account for that). Combined, these
factors make GS a stock
worth watching!
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