
Apple Inc.
(NDAQ: AAPL) shares fell sharply today amid increasing concerns that it
will not meet its sales goal of 10 million iPhones this year.
Meanwhile, reports also surfaced that a growing number of unlocked
phones are being used on other carriers and hurting its revenue share
with AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T). The new product only accounts for a small
portion of the firm’s revenues this year, but analysts are predicting
that it could account for upwards of a quarter of its revenues during
the next four years. So, are these problems that Apple can overcome or
are they in some serious trouble?
Apple is facing two large problems with its iPhones. First, there
are reports of illegal shipments of exported iPhones returning to the
United States and being sold for far less. It is believed that Apple
generates approximately $100 per sale in the United States, but this
development drops that number far lower. Secondly, there are an
increasing number of unlocked iPhones that are causing the company to
lose out on revenue from carrier partnerships. It is believed that
Apple generates more than $200 in gross profit over the life of the
phone through such arrangements. Reports have shown that over a million
such unlocked iPhones have hit the market since the product was
released.
The question shareholders have to ask is just how much the iPhone is
worth to Apple. Shares began at around $85 per share when Steve Jobs
first announced the new phone before dropping more than 40% of their
value from their peak. This drop has many analysts believing that the
stock is undervalued, especially given its strong free cash flow
generation. Other suggest that negative news surrounding the iPhone and
iPod will only make things worse before they get any better. And
finally, there are some that are concerned about the rising cost of the
iPhone as it could hurt sales of the legitimate copies while
encouraging more consumers to seek illegal imports.
In the end, Apple shares will likely be volatile over the coming
months as investors try and sort out the true impact that these events
have on sales. It will be interesting to see if Apple decides to
eventually drop its costs in order to encourage more buyers and take
advantage of its lucrative carrier partnerships. Meanwhile, there seems
to be no slowdown in unlocked iPhones. However, as the iPhone goes more
mainstream, it will be consumed by less tech-savvy people that will be
less likely to purchase and use an unlocked iPhone. Combined, these
factors make AAPL a stock that is definitely worth watching over the
coming months!
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