
Time Warner Inc.
(NYSE: TWX) appears to finally be tuning into the idea of a spin off of
its cable division. The media company has been conducting a formal
review of how to divest its 84% stake in Time Warner Cable
(NYSE: TWC), but depressed cable valuations have somewhat limited its
options. Interestingly, the proposed spin off was designed more to
increase Time Warner Cable’s strategic options than a way to unlock
value for shareholders. So, is this a stock worth adding to your
portfolio?
Chief executive Jeff Bewkes signaled yesterday that a split between
Time Warner and Time Warner Cable may be beneficial for both companies.
The executive believes that a separation of the two may spur merger and
acquisition interest in the cable company with the parent’s large stake
absent in any transaction. Bewkes also commented, wisely, that it
doesn’t matter what size Time Warners conglomorate is but rather
whether the return on capital is higher.
Spin-offs themselves are also worth watching because they create
opportunity through inherent neglect. Studies have shown that spin-offs
tend to significantly outperform the S&P 500 in the first two years
by as much as 31% in one study. It is worth noting, however, that the
optimal time to buy a spin-off is seen as six months after it takes
place. Price performance suggests that this is typically an optimal
period to buy to realize the maximum price appreciation over the next
12 to 18 months.
Time Warner Cable is the second largest cable operator in the United States behind Comcast Corporation
(NYSE: CMCSA), serving around 14.6 million customers in 33 states. The
division also delivers high speed internet services to over 7.4 million
residential customers and a growing number of businesses and digital
phone services to approximately 2.6 million customers. The cable
division is also widely accredited for leading the industry in
deploying Video on Demand via subscriptions.
So, will a spin off unlock value for shareholders? The spin off will
leave Time Warner Cable much cheaper and more readily available for
acquisition while a the spin off may also result in substantial value
inherently being unlocked. In the end, these factors make CMCSA a stock
worth watching!
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