Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) shares dropped over 20 percent yesterday after the company filed its quarterly
10-Q statement
with the SEC containing a modified "risk factors" section. The
regulatory filing indicated that the company was facing "unprecedented
disruptions" in debt and mortgage-finance operations that could hurt
future earnings and the company's financial condition.
The
largest U.S. home mortgage lender by volume said that reduced demand
from investors for its mortgage securities is causing them to retain
more loans instead of selling them. Perhaps most interestingly, the
company openly admitted that it has no idea where the situation is
headed or how it could affect the company in the future. The reduced
demand from investors means that prices are being pressured down
despite fundamental valuation. As a result, it is nearly impossible to
accurately value the mortgage portfolio.
As a result,
Countrywide said that it transferred $1 billion of its subprime
mortgages from "held for sale" to "held for investment" while also
marking down the value of the loans to $800 million. Meanwhile,
evidence is piling up supporting the notion that this market is in
trouble. Payments that were 30 days late spiked to 20% from 14% last
year while delinquency rates spiked to 3.7% from just 1.5% a year
earlier.
In the end, if this credit crunch passes by and people
end up continuing to purchase subprime mortgage loans, it could pay off
nicely for Countrywide. However, predicting where the market is headed
at this point is rather futile as the problems seem to continue to
worsen.
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