Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Microsoft Corporation’s (NDAQ: MSFT) pursuit of Yahoo Inc. (NDAQ: YHOO) continues to generate headlines even as new material developments haven’t arisen in the last few weeks.

Today, numerous sources are claiming that despite speculation Microsoft has no plans to increase its $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo – even as Yahoo has attempted to make the case that it is much more valuable.

Microsoft seems to be counting on Yahoo’s lackluster investor presentations combined with a slowing economy to make its offer seem not only fair but unmatchable. Insiders at Microsoft have been quoted saying that they are the only game in town right now so why raise the bid when they are only bidding against themselves. In other words, despite Yahoo’s claims that its businesses are worth more than $44.6 billion, no other suitors have made an equal, yet alone higher, offer, so why should Microsoft increase its bid when shareholders seem interested in a deal?

Though both Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) have both been discussed as possible alternatives to Microsoft, not necessarily as purchasers of Yahoo but rather as strategic partners, nothing has come of such talk. In reality, neither company has the resources or desire to match the short-term value of Microsoft’s bid. Instead, the companies were used to try and cause an increase in the price of the existing Microsoft bid.

A legitimate issue to consider in the structure of Microsoft’s bid is that because it is a cash-and-stock offer, the value of the bid is susceptible to a slowing economy or bearish stock market. In fact, since the bid was announced two months ago, the real value of the deal has slipped from $44.6 billion to only about $42 billion. This decline is due to the decline in Microsoft share price.

Unless something significant changes, holding Yahoo shares in the hope that Microsoft will increase its bid or that a rival bidder will emerge is not a good bet.

Related Companies
Baidu.com, Inc. (BIDU)
CNET Networks, Inc. (CNET)
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)

4/1/2008 5:47:36 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
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