Friday, January 11, 2008
PSPT Logo

PeopleSupport (NDAQ:PSPT) shares spiked nearly 10 percent today after IPVG Corp. upped its buyout offer to $17 a share or $385 million. The move comes after the company rejected a previous $15 per share offer, calling the offering price “inadequate” and complained that it failed to take into account the company’s strategic value and growth plan. Shareholders are hoping that the company will at least consider the new proposal, however, as it provides a further boost to the company’s shares.

IPVG sent a letter to PeopleSupport chairman and chief executive Lance Rosenzweig on Friday saying that it was “unfortunate” that PeopleSupport did not engage in serious discussions with the company “despite repeated attempts to have confidential dialogues regarding our proposal.” Some shareholders are clearly in support of a deal with shares rising close to the buyout price instead of surpassing it or falling below it in anticipation of rejection or in actual rejection of such a proposal.

Other shareholders believe that the company was correct in rejecting the $15 bid. Indeed, PeopleSupport revenues for 2008 are expected to be between $180 million and $190 million, which is higher than Wall Street estimates of $170 million. Offshore competitors for PeopleSupport are trading at about 2 to 3 times sales, which would translate to a valuation of around $18 per share, or $405 million for PeopleSupport. So, perhaps the new bid will get a little more attention.

Overall, PeopleSupport is like to continue seeing pressure from its largest shareholder who has pressured the company to conduct an auction to solicit other acquisition offers. Many are hoping that this offer will be at least considered by the company, however, given that it is close to the true valuation suggested by many analysts. Combined, these factors make PSPT a stock worth watching!

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1/11/2008 10:13:10 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
DMC Logo

Document Security Systems (AMEX:DMC) recently announced a new credit arrangement that has many investors and activist groups questioning the motives of the company’s management and board. A recent proxy statement by the company revealed a $3 million loan inked with Fagenson & Co’s Robert Fagenson, who owns 7.4% of the company and also happens to be on the board of directors.

Despite DMC’s $88 million market cap with no outstanding debt, the company decided to forego traditional financing and instead take a loan from its largest shareholder. Interestingly, the loan was collateralized with DMC’s largest subsidiary, Plastic Printing Professionals Inc., which is also the company’s only profitable division producing a product. Asensio and other large activist groups and shareholders have since questioned the motives behind such arrangements.

The arrangement will allow Fagenson to either profit from DMC’s rise or become the new owner of Plastic Printing Professionals if the loan doesn’t get paid back – either way, he’s a winner. However, the outlook is not so great for DMC’s other shareholders who stand to lose the most profitable division of their company with financing that was unnecessarily collateralized when alternative financing was available… they will be forced into court in order to recover any money they lose.

So, is Robert Fagenson setting himself up to obtain the company’s most valuable asset by using it as collateral for a small $3 million loan that could have easily been obtained elsewhere? Well, even the possibility of such a disastrous move should be enough to frighten some shareholders. DMC is also involved in some questionable dealings – the firm is currently engaged in a stock-financed legal battle against the European Central Bank over its patented anti-counterfeiting technology. The move comes after the company tried to sue the U.S. Treasury Department for infringements when the new $100 bill was release (which was rejected).

In the end, investors may want to stay away from this company while its most valuable asset is put at risk for a small $3 million loan. A loss of this division would be devastating while shareholders continue to face significant dilution as a result of frivolous lawsuits against central banks. While a court victory would almost certainly provide a massive boost to the share price, it is a probability that seems minute at this point.

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1/11/2008 8:34:48 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
CFC Logo

Bank of America (NYSE:BOC) agreed to purchase the troubled Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) in a $4 billion all-stock deal today after speculation of a bailout drove shares up over 50% late in yesterday’s session. The deal would give Countrywide shareholders 0.1822 shares of Bank of America for each share they own – or about $7.16 per share. The number came in about 7.6% lower than shareholders predicted yesterday with the stock’s jump after-hours, but is non-the-less a welcome offer for the company.

“We are aware of the issues within the housing and mortgage industries,” said CEO Ken Lewis to the WSJ. “Mortgages will continue to be an important relationship product, and we now will have an opportunity to better serve our customers and to enhance future profitability.”

Many are hoping that this move could help prevent a recession that so many have been predicting. A weak economy combined with rising mortgage and credit card delinquencies have become a substantial threat to the economy. Retailers reported weak sales in December and American Express reported reduced spending and increased delinquencies among its more affluent user base. Meanwhile, unemployment jumped and many economists pegged the odds of a recession close to 43%.

Ben Bernake indicated a willingness yesterday to cut rates more deeply, which helped boost the markets. Meanwhile, the bush administration starting throwing around the idea of a direct economic stimulus, such as tax rebates. Now, Bank of America’s move signals that some of the troubles in the mortgage market may finally be coming to the end of the climb in delinquencies and closer to regularity.

In the end, this is great news for shareholders and the economy in general. Countrywide shareholders no longer have to worry about bankruptcy and further declines while economists are now confident that at least one major company believes that the crisis is finally coming down from a high.

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1/11/2008 6:02:04 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback
 Thursday, January 10, 2008
CFC Logo

Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) shares spiked over 10 percent today after dropping substantially over the last few days on bankruptcy concerns. The bounce has been widely attributed to recently commentary that the mortgage lender may be too large to go bankrupt in the same way that Long-Term Capital Management was too large to go bankrupt – there’s too much at stake.

Countrywide recently announced that foreclosures and late payments on mortgages in December rose to their highest levels in five years, spelling out even more problems for the troubled mortgage lender. The huge number of bad loans alarmed many mortgage analysts, one of which said “the extent of the deterioration is a surprise”. Currently, Countrywide has a portfolio of around $1.5 trillion in loans that could prove to cause a crisis on Wall Street if the firm went belly-up.

So, could Countrywide go bankrupt? Well, Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance was quoted on PBS’ Nightly Business Report yesterday as saying that lawmakers would most likely lean towards propping up Countrywide and readying it for a merger rather than see it fall into bankruptcy. Indeed, any failure on the part of Countrywide would cause widespread problems throughout the mortgage industry. Loans would be significantly more difficult to obtain while liquidity in the marketplace would be impaired.

In the end, Countrywide is clearly in trouble right now. Foreclosures and rising defaults are dealing a double blow to the company as the firm is not only suffering losses on the loans themselves but also its mortgage securities are becoming increasingly difficult to sell due to their substantial drop in value. Whether or not the government will allow Countrywide to go bankrupt remains to be seen, but if they do, there will be huge problems in the United States housing market and economy.

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1/10/2008 6:36:25 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
GT Logo

The Goodyear Company (NYSE:GT) appears to be a compelling value play for at least two hedge funds that has quickly amassed a sizable stake in the tire and rubber company. TPG-Axon Capital quickly acquired shares to become the company’s second largest shareholder in about one quarter. Meanwhile, Eton Park Capital Management – the company’s largest shareholder – added 11.3 million shares to their stake. Investors may want to pay attention because both of these hedge funds are value funds!

TPG-Axon and Eton Park are both strong value funds and Goodyear fits perfectly into their portfolios. The company has strong financials and management along with good cash-flow generation. Meanwhile, the company’s cost reduction program may have been the catalyst needed to make it a compelling buy right now. Goodyear currently sits very near its 52-week low despite reporting strong third quarter earnings in October. The stock has fallen over 22% in the last three months based simply on economic fears and a decline in the U.S. Tire Index.

The purchase by TPG-Axon is a very positive sign for Goodyear shareholders. The company may be trading near its 52-week low, but the current valuation is likely unjustified and simply due to larger economic returns that are being blown out of proportion. The involvement of these two hedge funds could give investors the confidence they need to re-enter this stock and help it return to its true valuation. Combined, these factors make GT a stock worth watching closely over the next few months!

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1/10/2008 5:59:32 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
LOGI Logo

Logitech International (NDAQ:LOGI) shares jumped over seven percent in early trading amid speculation that Microsoft Corporation (NDAQ:MSFT) may be interested in taking over the company. The rumors stemmed from the fact that the software giant boosted its stake in the hardware company by 12 percent in recent weeks. Sources close to the situation say that a takeover bid could approach 48 Franks – or a 38 percent premium to yesterday’s closing price.

Many analysts have been predicting a move by software giants to diversify into hardware through mergers and acquisitions. An acquisition of Logitech by Microsoft would turn the software giant into not only one of the largest software companies in the world, but also the largest peripherals manufacturer in the world. A company that is already ubiquitous with personal computing software also has a lot of leverage that it could use to push hardware products as it has already done with its own lines.

Logitech’s co-founder and largest shareholder, Daniel Borel, declined to comment on Microsoft rumors but said he had no reason to sell his stake. He only owns some 6 percent, however, so he will neither enable nor prevent a sale of the company. Interestingly, he also hinted that Logitech may be a great acquisition by saying it was a company in great shape, growing nicely, with a strong vision for the future.

In the end, this is all great news for Logitech shareholders. A boost in the company’s market capitalization may now help it make some of its own acquisitions “for free” if it is able to hold onto the gains. Otherwise, an acquisition by Microsoft at a 38 percent premium would also be welcomed by shareholders who have been sitting on modest gains in the past. Combined, these factors make LOGI a stock worth watching!

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1/10/2008 5:00:07 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
 Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Etrade Logo

E*Trade Financial (NYSE:ETFC) is set to make several changes as a part of its broad restructuring plan. The brokerage announced that it will close its institutional trading business and sell its $3 billion asset-backed security portfolio. E*Trade also appointed a former Wachovia official and mortgage industry veteran Robert Burton as chief operating officer of its banking segment. Shareholders are hoping that these and other changes will help change the fortunes in the troubled brokerage.

E*Trade’s restructuring plan is focused on further reducing balance sheet risk and leverage in order to weather the storm and stay alive. These efforts included a sale of some $3 billion in securities, including a combination of mortgage-backed securities and muni bonds. The sales resulted in a realized loss of less than $5 million and should be settled by February. Meanwhile, the brokerage also announced that it would reduce its wholesale borrowing levels by cutting about $3.5 billion in Federal Home Loan Bank advances and repurchase agreements in this quarter.

E*Trade also announced that it saw “turnaround momentum” in its customer behavior as it added around 87,000 gross new accounts in December, ending the year with $190 billion and $33 billion in cash. The brokerage unit is also forming a special committee in order to explore ways to reduce the risk of its real estate portfolio after recently selling of a $3 billion portfolio of securities for $800 million. The company plans to provide additional details on its restructuring plan on January 24th.

In the end, this is all good news for ETFC shareholders who have been experiencing a tough time recently. These efforts should result in a significant reduction in risk along with more customer accounts and revenues. If successful, these measures could prove to be enough to help E*Trade recover to its previous price levels. Combined, these factors make ETFC a stock worth watching!

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1/9/2008 6:32:12 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
KBH Logo

KB Home (NYSE:KBH) shares dropped sharply today after the homebuilder posted a $772.7 million net loss for the fourth quarter – nine times wider than the loss that analysts expected. In reality, much of the loss was due to a $514 million non-cash charge due to changed accounting for tax purposes. However, many remain convinced that there is much more pain to come in the housing market.

Slow business has led many analysts to speculate that homebuilders will not be profitable until 2009 or 2010 and may face even more write-downs. Notably, deferred tax assets will eventually recover and produce a gain but it could be awhile. Meanwhile, average housing prices dropped 12% in the fourth quarter to $247,800 while supply remains extremely high. Also, more buyers are cancelling their contracts for homes than analysts expected.

The mortgage market isn’t looking any better either. Countrywide (NYSE:CFC) shares were also off sharply yesterday amid speculation that there was a forthcoming negative announcement that many assumed to be a bankruptcy. The mortgage company denied the rumors, but that didn’t stop shares from dropping nearly 30 percent amid falling housing prices and a surge in foreclosures.

Mortgage lenders are still faced with subprime exposure and an increasing number of foreclosures. Additionally, many prime loans granted to the rich may also face defaults as many were financed with adjustable rate mortgages with teaser rates that are due to reset higher over the next months and year. New government lending standards should prove to curb problems in the future, but there is still a lot of work ahead of the mortgage lending industry.

In the end, the housing market still faces an uphill battle due to an increasing supply of homes and an increasing number of buyers defaulting. It could be awhile before this problem turns itself around…

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1/9/2008 5:24:39 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
UIS Logo

Unisys Corporation (NYSE:UIS) shares fell sharply today after a large investor urged the company to immediately hire an investment banker and review all available strategic alternatives. The news comes after shares in the technology company hit a new 52-week low as Wall Street continues to push the company down despite several new contracts. Shareholders are hoping that this will change, however, with the involvement of activist hedge funds.

MMI Investments, which owns 9.9% of the company, sent a letter to the board arguing that its restructuring benefits were not enough to correct Unisys’ dramatic undervaluation. The activist hedge fund believes that the undervaluation is due to flaws in the company’s strategic configuration.

“[We] felt tremendous frustration with the seemingly continuous stream of management, operational and financial missteps that have characterized recent performance, obscuring otherwise impressive growth in EBITDA as a result of the restructuring and undermining the significant intrinsic value of Unisys’ U.S. Government business,” said MMI Manager Clay Lifflander. “Moreover we are mystified by management and the board’s inaction in the face of Unisys’ ruinous stock price performance over the past year.”

MMI insists that the best option would be a sale or spin-off of its U.S. government business unit. The move would, according to the hedge fund, allow for the highest multiple of the business to have its value recognized, raise equity capital for the company at an attractive price, and provide employees of that unit with financial incentives as owners.

Unisys announced today that they received the letter and would evaluate it; however, they were quick to note that they were already in the middle of refocusing their business, cutting costs, and getting rid of assets that are not central to their operations.

“Unisys is executing a major, multiyear repositioning plan and has made significant progress in enhancing its profitability by refocusing our business, reducing costs, and divesting noncore assets,” a Unisys spokesman said yesterday.

In the end, this is all good news for shareholders. Whether or not the company will take any action on these proposals remains to be seen, but any sale or spin-off could prove to be a windfall for troubled Unisys shareholders. Combined, these factors make UIS a stock worth watching!

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1/9/2008 4:44:45 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
 Tuesday, January 08, 2008
SBUX Logo

Starbucks Corporation (NYSE:SBUX) announced a broad restructuring plan aimed at turning around the specialty coffee maker. The company began by ousting CEO Jim Donald yesterday and handing the reins to current Chairman and founder Howard Schultz to bring investors some relief after a steep 48 percent decline in the share price during the last year. Shareholders applauded the news by sending shares up over 9 percent in today’s session.

Starbucks announced in a letter to employees that it had to shift focus away from bureaucracy and back to customers. Many argue that the firm’s rapid expansion forced it to cut down on aspects that made its cafes an exciting place with new products. Now, the company faces increased competition from fast food joints that are quickly adding premium coffee blends and a classier atmosphere to their own locations. Combined, these factors have put Starbucks in a tough spot.

However, shareholders are confident that Schultz is the right man to orchestrate a turnaround. He is well known as a fighter with tough standards and a strong desire to succeed. He stuck with the company as its chairman since stepping down and oversaw many side projects – such as Starbucks’ move into the music and film business. Schultz plans on restructuring the firm’s U.S. locations by giving employees better training and tools and launching new products, which he claims will have just as much of an impact as the Starbucks Card and its Frappuccino products.

In the end, this is all great news for shareholders. Schultz had what it takes to build up a billion dollar business behind coffee and now the same great leadership is again behind the company. Shareholders are hoping that he will be able to orchestrate a turnaround and make Starbucks a great brand once more, able to stand up to mounting competition. Combined, these factors make SBUX a stock worth watching!

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1/8/2008 4:31:23 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback