# Wednesday, January 16, 2008
LPHI Logo

Life Partners Holdings, Inc. (NDAQ: LPHI) may not be at the top of the list of some socially-conscious investors but it is definitely at the top for investors looking for a safe, high-growth investment. Life Partners is the premier player in what is known as the life settlement industry – an industry that buys life insurance policies for a fraction of face value and collects when the policy owner expires. It turns out that this is an enormously profitable business with net income increasing 515% and total business volume increasing 257% during the company’s most recent financial results.

Many companies in the financial sector have been troubled by their exposure to various types of debt. The rising cost of debt combined with the problems associated with securitized debt has been the trademark of this most recent downfall. However, life settlements offer an alternative investment that involves no debt and guaranteed income – after all, everyone dies at some point. Life Partners bundles and securitizes these life insurance policies and sells the package to institutions that are – now more than ever – looking for a safe investment shielded from the debt and credit markets.

So, why are the company’s shares so beaten down? Well, first of all some investors are uncomfortable with the fact that the majority of the company’s clients come from three referring brokers. Secondly, there is some pending litigation in Virginia that is in appeals court that could cause problems. Thirdly, many analysts and investors are accustomed to strong earnings announcements, so when things slow down, it could send the stock falling.

Trading with a P/E of just 14.8x earnings, many investors believe that this stock may be close to its bottom (since most of the above has been priced into the stock). Meanwhile, the company has instituted a million share buyback program under the belief that the company is substantially undervalued. So, what does this all mean in the end? Well, there are a lot of questions remaining, but this is definitely company worth watching going forward!

Related Companies
MetLife Inc. (MET)
eHealth Inc. (EHTH)
Aon Corporation (AOC)

Wednesday, January 16, 2008 6:12:41 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
MAIL Logo

IncrediMail Ltd. (NDAQ: MAIL) shares are trading up today but still off on the month after Google (NDAQ: GOOG) decided to boot the company from its AdSense program. Last Friday, the e-mail provider said it received notice from web search company stating that it decided to stop an advertising partnership between the two firms, which sent shares down more than 45 percent to a new 52-week low. Since then, shares have recovered somewhat but many are still unsure of what will happen now.

IncrediMail, which develops software to customize e-mails, relies on Google for over a substantial portion of its annual revenues. The company is now trying to clarify matters with the search giant and exploring alternative relationships with Google and other vendors. Interestingly, programs like Yahoo! Publisher and similar programs from Microsoft’s MSN can offer similar rates and would likely be willing to take the place of Google as an advertiser on their website. This means that the drop we have seen may be overdone since this issue would only be temporary.

The only real concern remaining is whether the drop was the result of fraudulent activity, which would mean some of the company’s revenues came as a result of illegitimate behavior. However, the company’s co-founder spoke with a member of the media not long ago confirming that this is not a fraud-related issue and that in a few days it will all be sorted out – with or without Google. This has many people purchasing the stock ahead of an anticipated announcement that all is again well.

In the end, this is bad news for existing shareholders but a great opportunity for new investors. There are many programs like Google AdSense that pay the same or more money per click or impression, so this problem should be able to be sorted out in a timely manner. This means that the 40%+ drop last Friday was majorly overdone and this could be a great buying opportunity. Combined, these factors make MAIL a stock worth watching!

Related Companies
Time Warner Inc. (TWX)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Google Inc. (GOOG)

Wednesday, January 16, 2008 5:40:43 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
BPAX Logo

BioSante Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NDAQ: BPAX) insiders appeal to be bullish on the stock as it approaches its 52-week low. The biopharmaceutical company, which is developing a female sexual dysfunction drug, saw executives and directors purchase some 151,000 shares in just the last month between $3.59 and $3.98. Meanwhile, not a single insider has sold stock – even when it was trading at a 52-week high last May. So, should individual investors consider buying into this stock?

BioSante currently has a market cap of $110 million with a strong balance sheet, $30 million in cash, no debt, and a promising drug in the pipeline – LibiGel. The new drug is a low-dose testosterone in a gel formulation designed to increase sexual desire in women. A recent study conducted by the Journal of the American Medical Association found that 43% of American women (40 million or so) are estimated to experience some degree of impaired sexual function. The company believes that LibiGel will be the first FDA-approved product for FSD, with an estimated 1.4 million off-label prescriptions written during 3006. The minimum estimated US market for LibiGel is $2 to $4 billion with blockbuster sales potential.

What does the competition look like? Well, Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) developed their own twice-weekly testosterone skin patch in 2004, but it was rejected by the FDA and only approved for use in Europe. Since then, they have failed to launch any additional safety studies, so it appears that they will not attempt approval in the United States. Meanwhile, the FDA recently sent warning letters to compounding pharmacies that are pushing “bio-identical hormone replacement therapy” products designed to do the same thing as the testosterone gel. Moreover, BioSante’s FDA approval enables patients to get insurance to cover the drug in many cases – which means more sales.

So, where does the drug stand now? LibiGel needs just 12 months of safety data before a new drug application (NDA) will be considered by the FDA. The Phase 3 trial for the drug launched last week and is designed to demonstrate the product’s safety in low doses. The first efficacy trial is now underway and the company plans to initiate a second in early 2008. Clearly, insiders are also bullish on the prospects of this drug as they are buying up a record amount of stock. Combined, these factors make BPAX a stock worth watching!

Related Companies
Auxilium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AUXL)
Cellegy Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (CLGY)
Noven Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NOVN)

Wednesday, January 16, 2008 5:15:57 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback