# Wednesday, January 30, 2008

MIVA Logo

MIVA, Inc. (NDAQ: MIVA) shares have been beaten down from their highs of almost $8 per share back in July to it’s current level of just over $2 per share on no specific negative news. The Internet company’s most recent quarterly results surely disappointed investors, but many investors and analysts insist that the sell off may be significantly overdone. So, are MIVA shares a buy at these levels?

MIVA has a lot of things going for it. First, its “Alot.com” toolbar initiative seems to be gaining a lot of traction. Alot.com is also showing improved traffic rankings and is now ranked higher than many other search portals like Looksmart.com and Local.com, according to Alexa’s traffic rankings. Moreover, over 7 million active users are also using its toolbar program. MIVA is entitled to profit sharing on any searches made from this toolbar to the tune of $0.10 to $5 per click depending on the search.

MIVA has also been caught under some litigation for click fraud and gambling advertisements that plagued other industry giants. Google and Yahoo announced that they settled by paying huge fines and setting aside additional funds, and many feared the the same conclusion may be reached by this company. Yesterday, MIVA announced that it had settled its litigation for only $1.3 million out of pocket, leaving its $25 million still in tact.

MIVA has also experienced problems in the third quarter with a decrease in revenue per click that its advertisers pay for traffic. Many believe that this is due in part to the quality of advertisers on its network compared to that of others like Google AdWords, Overture, or others. However, the value of this network in the event of a buyout would be apparent as the quality of advertisers would increase if it were purchased by a company like Interactive/IAC or CNET Networks.

In the end, there is a lot of value potential in this company. The company has $25 million in cahs, an add network that could be worth more than $100 million and a growing toolbar segment that is quickly positioning the company for profitability once again. Given these facts, one could reasonable see a valuation of at least $3 to $4 per share. Combined, this makes MIVA a stock worth watching!

Related Companies
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
Marchex, Inc. (MCHX)
ValueClick Inc. (VCLK)

Wednesday, January 30, 2008 7:12:11 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback

INTC Logo

Intel Corporation (NDAQ: INTC) shareholders have seen their investment drop more than 25 percent during January 2008 alone on fears of worsening economic conditions. Many investors and analysts believe that the drop was not justified by any underlying fundamental reasoning, but just the assumption that technology stocks (especially semiconductors) are the first casualties during an economic downturn. The notion was somewhat confirmed by a weak guidance offered by the company in the fourth quarter suggesting that business may slow down. However, do these two concerns justify such a steep drop?

Intel did not indicate that it expected chip sales to soften in 2008, despite its cautionary outlook. Rather, the chipmaker announced that it expects robust demand for processors and chipsets as PC sales are expected to remain consistent. Furthermore, they expect any slower sales in the United States to be offset by emerging markets around the world. In fact, a growing piece of Intel’s record operating income of $8.2 billion in 2007 came from emerging markets and other overseas markets.

So, how can the drop in fourth quarter earnings be justified? Well, the drop stemmed from an excess in supply of flash memory chips in the market, which affected more companies than just Intel. In fact, this is also the main reason that the chipmaker issued cautionary guidance - it expects its other products to remain strong. Luckily, these flash drives only account for a small portio of Intel’s total sales, and all other parts of the business promise to remain strong performers.

In the end, Intel’s demand is set to remain strong during 2008. These expectations have been confirmed by other industry giants like Microsoft (NDAQ: MSFT) who expects PC sales to rise by 11% to 12% in 2008 despite the economic problems in the United States. Moreover, 75% of Intel’s sales come from other countries and these countries have shown record growth. Overall, we should not see any significant downfall in 2008 as is currently priced into this stock. Combined, these factors make INTC a stock worth watching!

Related Companies
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)
International Business Machines (IBM)

LSI Corporation (LSI)

Wednesday, January 30, 2008 5:52:13 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
# Tuesday, January 29, 2008

NYT Logo

New York Times (NYSE: NYT) board members may be in for a fight after two large shareholders announced that they will nominate four candidates to the company’s board of directors on April 22nd. The candidates would occupy the four board seats that are elected by regular Class A shareholders while the superior Class B shares - held by the Ochs-Sulzberger family - would appoint the other nine and retain control of the company. Regardless, shareholders are hoping that the four candidates could bring change to a troubled company.

Janet Robinson of Harbinger Capital Partners and Firebrand Partners announced that they were submitting the proposal in a spirit of “cooperation with the board and management that moves beyond the old dichotomy of ‘hostile’ and ‘friendly’”. The hedge funds said they would not pursue a change in the dual class shareholder structure that has garnered so much complaint, but would push for change in a board that “has not been effective in inspiring the requisite bold action this media environment demands”.

The hedge funds demanded that the company immediately take action to redeploy capital to acquire more digital assets, including content and distribution platforms. Many investors have long complained that the New York Times was simply falling behind the times by ignoring key Internet and digital trends and failing to make acquisitions to drive growth. To this end, the hedge funds are bringing on at least two directors with experience in Internet media to help drive the company in the right direction.

In the end, the New York Times still faces a number of key issues that it must solve before it can be considered a good company and investment. The dual class voting structure, which came under fire last year, is still a major problem. However, now investors realize that it is impossible to combat it. Consequently, these hedge funds are now focusing on the next problem: the failure to embrace the digital revolution. To this end, the investors are nominating board members with broad experience in this arena to drive management to focus in on these areas. Combined, these factors make NYT a stock worth watching!

Related Companies
Media General, Inc. (MEG)
Gannett Co., Inc. (GCI)
News Corporation (NWS)

Tuesday, January 29, 2008 7:03:45 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback