Wednesday, February 13, 2008

VCLK Logo

ValueClick, Inc. (NDAQ: VCLK) shares rose 4 percent during today’s session and jumped an additional 6 percent after hours after the company announced both mixed earnings and the fact that it settled a probe launched by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). Despite the poor economic sentiment in the United States, the company seems to believe that its future remains bright. Shareholders are hoping that these events will help clear clouds over the company’s head and pave the way for a long-awaited rise in share price. So, is it time to buy?

ValueClick announced revenues of $183.1 million on an adjusted-EBITDA of $45.6 million, which exceeded previously issued guidance and increased 14 percent from the fourth quarter of 2006. Meanwhile, diluted net income per share came in at $0.18, which was at the high end of the previously issued guidance range. The company’s balance sheet also looks healthy with $287.5 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities with no long-term debt. Even better, the company currently has $50.6 million of authorization remaining on its stock repurchase program.

ValueClick also announced that it paid $2.9 million to settle the FTC lawsuit that alleged the firm used deceptive marketing practices that violated the CAN-SPAM Act and FTC Act. This development eliminate the cloud that has been hanging over the company’s head for some time and led to an improvement in its marketing practices. The online marketing firm believes that this development will also help set the guidelines for the lead generation industry as a whole and will establish a new set of best-practices.

In the end, this is all good news for ValueClick and its shareholders. The company’s revenue mix remains favorable and its operating margins appear to have finally bottomed for the time being. However, investors should be careful to buy this company for the long-term as the sector in general continues to suffer from increased competition that is pressuring margins despite an increasing move to the Internet for marketing expenditures. Combined, these factors definitely make VCLK a stock worth watching!

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2/13/2008 10:39:55 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

VG Logo

Vonage Holdings Corp. (NYSE: VG) shares rose over five percent today as its losses narrowed and subscribers rose. Unfortunately, the top-line numbers do not accurately reflect what is really going on in the company. A closer investigation reveals that the company has several internal trends that make their earnings unsustainable over the long-term if it can’t get its act together. So, what are these trends and what does it mean for Vonage going forward?

Vonage reported earnings that were lower than analysts expected, but greater than what the street predicted, sending shares higher in today’s session before dropping after hours. The net loss for this quarter came in at $11.1 million from $117 million a year earlier. Meanwhile, subscriber additions came in at 56,000 which is down from 166,000 last year. The company may have lowered its losses, but only because it reduced its marketing expenditures. Unfortunately, the company’s revenue per line declined while its marketing costs increased. Clearly, this is an unsustainable trend that must be reversed before this company can be a viable investment.

Vonage also has $253 in convertible debt that can be put back onto the company in December of 2008. This is money that the company cannot afford to pay at current rates, and they are in discussions to refinance the debt to make it more manageable. Vonage said that it believed that the situation will be resolved, but there are no assurances. As a result, it will likely receive a “going concern” letter from its auditor soon that may send shares lower. And to make matters even worse, the company announced that it would restate its second and third quarter results to correct its reported non-cash compensation expense, which it believes is off-base.

In the end, these are major concerns that Vonage must address in order to avoid some major problems and perhaps even bankruptcy. Additionally, there are some near-term announcements that could drop the stock substantially if they indeed surface. Combined, these factors make VG a good short target and definitely a stock that non-speculators should stay away from until the picture clears up!

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2/13/2008 10:17:16 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

BGP Logo

Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) is one of the many retailers hit hard by the economic downturn. Shares are trading more than 50 percent off of their 52-week highs while investors express concerns over the company’s lackluster profits and thinning margins. Increased competition from both its brick-and-morter competitor, Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS), and online competition from Amazon.com, Inc. (NDAQ: AMZN), has cast doubt on the company’s ability to grow in any meaningful way. So, why buy this company?

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square is one major investor that has taken a major interest in the beaten down company. The activist hedge fund has recently built up an 18 percent stake in the troubled bookstore with options and derivatives that could allow him to boost it to 26.2 percent. Meanwhile, Pershing Square’s Richard Mcguire was elected to the company’s board of directors on January 17th, which could give the hedge fund substantial leverage when proposing any changes. However, many remain unsure of what the famous activist sees in the bookseller that is feeling the heat from its competitors.

Some believe that it could be a vote of confidence in the company’s turnaround plan. Borders is prepared to open its new concept store this Thursday in Waters Place shopping Plaza in Pittsfield, which has many investors excited about the new possibilities. The concept store has been hailed by the company as a new retailing model that will embrace technology, boost sales, and differenciate the company from its larger rival Barnes & Noble. Others suggest that the takeover rumors that have surrounding the company for so long may finally come to fruition with the stock trading at record lows.

The Borders Group itself is also trading at some cheap multiples. The company’s price-to-book rate is very low relative to its peers, suggesting that the company’s assets are undervalued. Meanwhile, its price-to-sales ratio is also very low, suggesting that the company’s revenues are strong if it can cut costs and debt to increase profitability. In the end, these components do make for a good turnaround play provided that the company can orchestrate a successful turnaround. Many believe, however, that with an activist investor on the board, the company should be able to do something right!

Overall, Borders Group is an interesting stock that is definitely worth watching. Ackman’s portfolio returned 22% last year and his fund has a great track record of success over the long-term. His vote of confidence in the turnaround of this company along with his director on the board make this a stock that is definitely worth watching over the next months and years!

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2/13/2008 5:28:16 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
Playboy Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: PLA) reported a disappointing fourth quarter, with more questions arising about the longterm viability of its business model. According to Playboy's earnings report, it lost $1.1 million in the last quarter of the year on stagnant revenues of $85.9 million.

Though the poor earnings reflect a one-time charge related to the sale of its Andrita television studio, it is the general condition of the business, not the specific figure that the company lost, that is driving concerns.

Though international TV revenue and online revenue rose by 10% and 2% respectively, domestic TV revenue dropped 10% and entertainment revenue dropped 3%. What everyone knows Playboy for, of course, is Playboy Magazine, which saw a slight drop in long-stagnant revenue which now is only $24.7 million – as a result of less subscriptions and advertising. This is a trend even management admits won't be reversed soon, as it anticipates a further 30% loss in magazine revenue just in the first quarter of this year because of continued shrinking advertising.

Chief Executive Christie Hefner, mustering optimism, said in the earnings report, “we expect licensing to report another year of growth in our consumer products business as we expand our distribution and product lines, as well as open new Playboy concept stores...We also expect to close another location-based entertainment deal, building a pipeline that will provide a steady stream of openings to those high-margin, high-profile venues in years to come."

Christie Hefner is referencing the only real bright-spot in Playboy's business – brand recognition. This has allowed Playboy to grow licensing revenues 18% to $10.5 in the quarter. The company also plans on outsourcing its Web commerce and merchandising operations to more experienced companies.

The question then becomes, for how long will Playboy be a viable brand when the underlying business that built that brand – Playboy Magazine – is in seemingly hopeless decline? The market sentiment seems decidedly negative at this point, with Playboy shares still down for the day 4% after losing as much as 10% in early trading.

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2/13/2008 5:23:19 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback
MSFT Logo

Microsoft Corporation (NDAQ: MSFT) responded to Yahoo! Inc.’s (NDAQ: YHOO) rejection of their takeover offer yesterday in a regulatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Yahoo leaders are reportedly fishing for a $40+ offer for the company and some believe that Microsoft may be willing to pay up. Others suggest that the company may be woring with another company, like Time Warner Inc.’s (NYSE: TWX) AOL division. Regardless, Microsoft’s response gives us a key hint to future developments.

Here’s the reply from Microsoft’s 8-K filing with the SEC:

It is unfortunate that Yahoo! has not embraced our full and fair proposal to combine our companies. Based on conversations with stakeholders of both companies, we are confident that moving forward promptly to consummate a transaction is in the best interests of all parties.

We are offering shareholders superior value and the opportunity to participate in the upside of the combined company. The combination also offers an increasingly exciting set of solutions for consumers, publishers and advertisers while becoming better positioned to compete in the online services market.

A Microsoft-Yahoo! combination will create a more effective company that would provide greater value and service to our customers. Furthermore, the combination will create a more competitive marketplace by establishing a compelling number two competitor for Internet search and online advertising.

The Yahoo! response does not change our belief in the strategic and financial merits of our proposal. As we have said previously, Microsoft reserves the right to pursue all necessary steps to ensure that Yahoo!’s shareholders are provided with the opportunity to realize the value inherent in our proposal.

On February 1, 2008, Microsoft announced a proposal to acquire all the outstanding shares of Yahoo! common stock for per share consideration of $31 representing a total equity value of approximately $44.6 billion and a 62 percent premium above the closing price of Yahoo! common stock based on the closing prices of the stocks of both companies on Jan. 31, 2008, the last day of trading prior to Microsoft’s announcement. Microsoft’s proposal would allow the Yahoo! shareholders to elect to receive cash or a fixed number of shares of Microsoft common stock, with the total consideration payable to Yahoo! shareholders consisting of one-half cash and one-half Microsoft common stock.

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2/13/2008 4:07:31 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
 Tuesday, February 12, 2008

General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) reported a $38.7 billion net loss for 2007, a company record. Though the shockingly large figure is an accounting reality more than a business one – GM used $39 billion of tax credits in the third quarter of the year that would have otherwise expired.
 
Despite tax management being the bulk of the loss, GM had combined losses of $1.7 billion in North American markets compared to a more modest profit of $437 from Latin America and Asia. The U.S. auto market has seen weaker sales in general recently due to a slow economy, but U.S. automakers Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) and GM are particularly vulnerable because of their reliance on expensive pickup trucks and SUVs that use more fuel and require more financing. This combination generally makes them more difficult to sell in weak economies or during periods of higher fuel costs, both of which the U.S. is now experiencing.
 
Acknowledging the reality that U.S. sales may continue to be problematic, GM Chief Financial Officer Fritz Henderson said in the wake of today’s announcement “We are talking about global automotive operations -- that is where we see an improvement.”
 
GM is also seeking to minimize its largest cost, labor. It announced, in an unprecedented move, that it is offering voluntary buyouts to all of its U.S. union workers, totalling about 74,000 employees.
 
Depending on the employee, the offer includes up to a $62,500 payout in the form of a lumpsum of cash, retirement benefits or an annuity. The buyout is designed to drastically reduce the number of UAW represented employees and replace them with lower-wage workers in an attempt to compete globally. Even so, most analysts doubt GM will be able to make a profit in 2008.
 
Though GM faces severe challenges, the company still has more than $27 billion in cash and remains the world’s largest automaker. Whether or not it can maintain either of these positions may largely rest on the success of its worker buyout program.
 
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2/12/2008 6:44:01 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

GAIA Logo

Gaiam, Inc. (NDAQ: GAIA) announced the spin off of its Real Goods Solar (NDAQ: RSOL) unit last week in a move that could substantially boost shareholder value. Real Goods Solar installs residential solar energy systems in California and claims roughly 2/3 of the residential solar market. A market that values solar will surely find value in this pure play that promises to net a substantial amount of cash for Gaiam and its shareholders. So, should you look at buying into this hot new issue?

Initial public offerings in hot sectors like this generally spike early in their trading, which can make it difficult for investors to obtain a good price. Luckily, this particular spin off scenario gives investors the ability to obtain shares in the spin off company by purchasing shares in the parent before the separation. Essentially, shareholders are given the ability to get on the ground floor of one of the largest pure-play players in one of the fastest growing industries in the market.

Gaiam itself is also a strong, diversified company focusing on “green” products. Real Goods Solar will take over the company’s solar operations while the retail division will continue to focus on selling products like yoga supplies, exercise equipment, eco friendly home supplies and much more. Combined, the units are quickly growing with earnings rising more than 40% last year and a projected 50% in 2008. Currently, Gaiam commands a steep 75x multiple, but strong growth may justify that with a PEG ratio that is within the norm.

In the end, Gaiam is a great company and this spin off should only unlock additional value for shareholders. This is one of the few opportunities to get on the ground floor of the solar boom, but investors should carefully watch the terms of the spin off in case pricing goes beyond a tax free distribution. Combined, these factors make GAIA a stock that is definitely worth watching over the next few months!

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2/12/2008 6:24:25 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

PBSO Logo

Point Blank Solutions, Inc. (OTC:PBSO) may be a small company with a market cap of just $188 million but some investors see big value in the body armor maker. Warren Lichtenstein’s Steel Partners is one such investor who offered to acquire the company for no less than $5.50 per share in cash. Unfortunately, the company rejected the offer last year and the activist hedge fund is now nominating its own slate of directors to take over the board and presumably force a sale. So, is this a stock worth buying at these depressed levels?

Point Blank shares plummeted after former chief executive David Brooks was charged last October with securities fraud, insider trading, tax evasion, and other offenses. Prosecutors alleged that he improperly inflated corporate profits and made the company pay for personal expenses including a face-lift for his wife. The news infuriated shareholders as the stock sank from around $6.20 per share to around $2.70 per share earlier this year. Shareholders are now ready for a change as shares continue to fall as investors are losing hope.

Steel Partners then announced this week that it would be taking matters into its own hands by nominating five of its own directors to the company’s board. The activist hedge fund has extensive experience working with and maximizing the value of other public companies in the defense industry, including United Industrial Corporation, Aydin Corp., ECC International corp. and Tech-Sym Corp. Additionally, the proposed directors have extensive experience in the defense industry and could provide valuable insight for the company to turn itself around after the disaster last October.

Very little has changed materially since the $5.50+ offer from Steel Partners, so it should be interesting to see whether the offer is still on the table. If so, that would mean a 37.5%+ premium to the current market price of $3.97. Otherwise, if the firm simply works to turn around the company it could lead to even higher share prices if successful. Combined, these factors make PBSO a stock that is definitely worth watching over the next few months!

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2/12/2008 5:43:39 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is not having a particularly good week. On the heels of being sued by the University of Wisconsin-Madison for patent violation on its Core 2 Duo processors, the company has been raided by the European Union on suspicion of violating antitrust practices.

The raid was conducted by the European Competition Commission and included some retailers selling Intel products as well. A spokesperson for the Commission, Jonathan Todd, said "Commission officials carried out unannounced inspections at the premises of a manufacturer of central processing units and a number of personal computer retailers [because of suspicions that the companies] may have violated [European Community] Treaty rules on restrictive business practices and/or abuse of a dominant market position."

Though this is a breaking story with few substantive details, Intel spokesperson Chuck Mulloy confirmed the raids saying “There has been a raid on our offices in Munich. As is our normal practice, we are cooperating with authorities."

A raid on a legitimate business enterprise for antitrust reasons may seem extreme by U.S. standards, but the European Union has greater powers and is far more active than antitrust regulators here. The Competition Commission can fine companies up to 10% of their global revenue.

Examination of Intel by the Commission began in 2001 when Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) sent a complaint alleging Intel was abusing its dominant market position. Besides these raids, Intel was already facing a hearing in Brussels later this month regarding allegations that it sold processors below cost in an attempt to bully AMD out of the market.

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2/12/2008 4:29:04 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

YHOO Logo

Yahoo Inc.’s (NDAQ: YHOO) Jerry Yang lays out a very compelling argument for why he rejected the Yahoo bid in a letter to employees that we obtained through an 8-K filing with the SEC.


Here’s a transcript of the e-mail (exhibit 99.1):

Subject: our board’s decision

as you’ll see from the news release we issued today, our board of directors has reviewed microsoft’s unsolicited proposal with yahoo!’s management, financial and legal advisors. after a careful evaluation, the board has unanimously concluded that the proposal is not in the best interests of yahoo! and our stockholders. of course, the board of directors is continuously evaluating all of its strategic options in the context of the rapidly evolving industry environment and we remain committed to pursuing initiatives that maximize value for stockholders.

we believe microsoft’s proposal substantially undervalues yahoo!-including our highly recognizable global brand, large worldwide audience, significant recent investments in advertising platforms, future growth prospects, our ability to generate free cash flow and our earnings potential as well as substantial unconsolidated investments (like alibaba and yahoo! japan).

you deserve the credit for the tremendously valuable business we have built. all of us in management, as well as the members of the board, deeply appreciate and respect what you have done and continue to do in order to maintain and enhance yahoo!’s leadership position in the online world.

we have been very deliberate about the steps we are taking to position yahoo!. we are putting in place the pieces we need to accelerate growth by becoming a leading starting point for users and the must buy for advertisers. the global online advertising market is projected to grow from $45 billion in 2007 to $75 billion in 2010, and our more focused strategies position us to capture an even larger share of this market. we are moving to take advantage of this unique window of time in the growth of the online advertising market to build market share and to create value for stockholders.

several key assets form a solid foundation as we execute this strategy. first, our global brand is a tremendous base from which to build leadership as the starting point for internet use: yahoo! is one of the most recognizable and admired brands in the world. we have some 500 million users (1 out of every 2 internet users worldwide). in the u.s., we are #1 in personalized home pages, mail, music, news, sports, shopping and travel. yahoo! also is #1 in time spent on our sites, an increasingly important metric for marketers.

second, our substantial operating cash flow, which we expect to grow in the double digits in 2009, gives us the financial flexibility to execute our plans.

third, we have made important investments in our core computing infrastructure that provides us greater scalability and increases the rate of iteration on core technologies like algorithmic search as much as tenfold. and of course, you’re familiar with our investments in enhanced search technology through panama. these assets-the brand, the audience, the financial strength, and the technology-position us to capitalize on this pivotal moment for yahoo!
and the online marketplace. of course, our most important resource is you: the thousands of creative, passionate and committed yahoos who are executing our strategies to deliver value for users, advertisers, publishers-and stockholders.

as you know, we have taken significant steps to refocus our business on our starting point-must buy strategies. and we’re making headway. starting points: our goal is to grow visits to key yahoo! starting points and properties, by approximately 15% per year over the next several years. and we’re on the move: we are the most visited site in the u.s., and the number of u.s. users grew strongly in the double-digits in 2007 on our yahoo.com home page alone. as our open platform takes shape it will significantly accelerate that growth.

mobile, as an area of focus, is the biggest emerging starting point in the world. with twice as many mobile users as personal computer users and projections for substantial advertising growth in mobile, we have an important competitive edge as the number one mobile destination in the u.s. and we are building a superior mobile experience for yahoo! users to further capitalize on this opportunity.

must buy: at the same time, we will increasingly make online advertising easier and more effective for marketers, opening up new ways for them to address consumers. our right media exchange, acquired last year, is more open and easy to use, simplifying transactions for buyers and sellers of online ad inventory. another 2007 acquisition, blue lithium, brings us best in class performance marketing. while we’ve historically tracked the success of our ad business by focusing on metrics related to our owned and operated sites, our goal is to increase the percentage of the total online advertising demand we touch-to 20% of our addressable market over the next several years, from an estimated 15% in 2007.

our newspaper consortium, is a great example. it has grown to more than 600 newspapers, up from just 264 just seven months ago. combined with ebay, comcast, at&t and others, we are creating a valuable, unique network of premium sites to serve our advertisers.

our key strategies will be enhanced by our adoption of platforms that welcome third party developers and encourage new applications that will enrich the user experience.

finally, beyond our core strategies, there’s the added benefit of our substantial, unconsolidated investments in china and japan: we have major positions in yahoo! japan, the leader in its market and alibaba, which is strongly positioned in china, a market with enormous growth potential.

we have accomplished a great deal in a very short time. yahoo! is a faster-moving, better organized, more nimble company well on its way to transforming the experiences of its users, advertisers, publishers and developers.

i hope you are as proud as i am of the yahoo! we have built and we continue to build. thanks for your hard work.

jerry

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2/12/2008 4:08:44 PM UTC  #    Comments [2]  |  Trackback