# Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Sybase, Inc. (NYSE: SY) shares rose marginally after the software-maker agreed to to boost its share buyback program as part of an agreement with one of its largest shareholders. The firm announced a $300 million self-tender offer at prices between $28 and $30 per share and will use its best efforts to complete approximately $82.9 million in additional open market repurchases prior to the completion of their 2009 annual meeting. The shareholder, Sandell Asset Management, will in turn drop its bid to takeover the board and limit its future acquisition of stock. So, should you ad some Sybase to your stock portfolio?

Sandell Asset Management had been concerned about the company’s large cash position. Sybase noted that it had about $735 million in worldwide cash, with between $225 million and $250 million of free cash. However, restricted cash and long-term investments reduce this amount to around $700 million in available cash balance. Looking ahead, the company estimated that it would need working capital in the United States of about $85 million and $115 million outside of the United States. Clearly, this is excess cash that could be leveraged elsewhere to deliver value for shareholders rather than sit in a bank account.

So, is this buyback a good deal for shareholders? The current agreement calls for purchasing at a significant premium to the current market price. The premium currently stands at around 9.5 percent and could rise higher, since the additional $82.9 million buyback is not tied to a specific price. There are also many other benefits brought on by a share buyback program given that it will reduce the number of outstanding shares by over 10 percent. Since it was financed out of cash on hand and not earnings, the reduction should boost the earnings per share. Some of this may be priced into the stock, but it is still a benefit worth mentioning.

Sybase is also quickly turning itself around after being left for dead not long ago. The software-maker announced record earnings in 2007 with a 17 percent increase in revenues and 26 percent increase in net income, which indicates that it has been improving its profit margins. Meanwhile, the company is continuing to take a larger portion of the database market from competitors like Sun Microsystems who had the opportunity to acquire the company on the cheap not long ago! In the end, these factors all make SY a stock worth watching closely over the next few months!

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Tuesday, February 26, 2008 6:44:05 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expected to announce sometime next week that its Jaguar and Land Rover brands are being sold to India's Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE: TTM), according to a British union.

Though Jaguar and Land Rover are both currently owned by Ford, the U.K.-based brands continue to be largely manufactured there. Unite union spokesperson Andrew Dodgshon, said in an interview today that a sale may happen as soon as March 5. Ford already said back in January that Tata was the preferred bidder for the units.

Ford, the world's third biggest automaker behind General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Toyota (NYSE: TM), is selling Jaguar and Land Rover to focus on its core brands after losses of $2.67 billion last year and a record $12.6 billion in 2006. India-based Tata would expand outside the Asian auto markets through the acquisition of such well recognized brands.

More than anything, this sale will help Ford stabilize its financial situation by not only getting a cash influx of around $1.5 billion from the sale but by shedding Jaguar, which Ford has admitted is losing money.

Tata Motors is part of Tata Group, India's biggest conglomerate which includes steel production and consulting services. Tata built the first Indian-designed car and plans to build a $2,500 car later this year. The real importance of this deal in long-run is probably not a milestone on Ford's turnaround but rather a milestone on Tata's path to becoming a major automotive player worldwide. Given the advantages the Indian company has in both the cost of design labor and manufacturing labor, investors in other car companies should be worried.

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Tuesday, February 26, 2008 6:23:08 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback

Google Inc. (NDAQ: GOOG) shares are down sharply today after new data from comScore was released showing a decline in the number of web users clicking on ads. The news prompted many analysts to cut their price targets and issue warnings as the vast majority of Google’s revenues comes from its pay-per-click program. However, others insist that these concerns over overblown and that the technology giant will be able to quickly recover thanks to stronger pricing. So, is this a time to sell Google stock or simply a good entry point while shares are cheap?

Google’s AdWords program faces a variety of challenges going forward. comScore reported that Google’s paid clicks dropped 7 percent in January from the previous month and were relatively flat with the same period last year. This is the lowest click-through rate since comScore started reporting the data. Google had indicated some concerns about paid clicks back in the fourth quarter, but blamed the slowdown on technical changes designed to reduce the number of accidental and fraudulent clicks by users. Some analysts believe that these technical improvements should lift conversion rates and lead to stronger pricing.

Google also faces a variety of other issues related to its pay-per-click business. Businesses bidding on keywords are quickly finding that many of them are now priced so higher that they are just breaking even upon conversion. This peak in keyword pricing means that Google’s revenue growth will likely begin to slow as the revenue-per-click peaks. Since this program accounts for around 90%+ of the company’s revenues, this almost certainly will lead to slower growth. Slower growth means a lower multiple, which means a lower stock price despite the same earnings.

Google is also dealing with increasing fraudulent activity. Some businesses are clicking on competition ads in order to raise their marketing costs and reduce their conversions. A recent report by ClickForensics found that 28 percent of all clicks were fraudulent, which is up from 19.2 percent in 2006. This compares to an industry rate of 16.6 percent, which may prompt some advertisers to switch their campaigns to Yahoo Publisher or MSN Adcenter until Google can fix the problem. However, it can be a hard problem to fix and so far Google has just been refunding money to keep advertisers happy.

In the end, Google faces a variety of problems with its primary source of revenues. The recent slowdown in paid clicks may be attributable to a broader economic slowdown, but the reality is that its other businesses will inevitably slow down as well. The stock has already dropped substantially off of its high as investors slowly come to this realization, but it may face further declines unless the company finds a way to incease or diversify its revenues. Combined, these factors make GOOG a stock worth watching!

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Tuesday, February 26, 2008 5:52:50 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback