# Wednesday, March 12, 2008

French bank Societe Generale (EPA: GLE) is not having an especially good day. First, the French police raided its headquarters as part of the continuing investigation of rogue trader Jerome Kerviel - specifically, the police were looking into another SocGen employee who had extensive contact with Kerviel though the exact details of the raid have not been released yet.

Meanwhile, in the U.S. shareholder Phillip Barkett brought a lawsuit against the company on the grounds that it misled investors about its subprime loans as well as didn't take proper precautions against the actions of Kerviel. The Missouri resident who brought the suit owned American Depository Receipts of SocGen and allegedly lost $3,100.

The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan seeks to represent all purchasers of SocGen ADRs and all U.S. buyers of the bank's shares on any exchange between Aug. 1, 2005, and Jan. 23, 2008. It states that "[SocGen] thus gave investors no warning about the size of [its] losses," and "SocGen had a 'culture of risk' in which risky trading was tacitly permitted."

These allegations all stem from the shocking $7.5 billion in losses that SocGen, France's second largest bank, announced in January. Amazingly, the bank claims that these trades were carried out without its knowledge by 31 year-old Kerviel who was only a junior trader. These problems have only been exacerbated by recent general problems in the world capital markets which caused SocGen to take further losses in February.

SocGen shares are actually up because today's news, compared to that of the last two months, isn't particularly bad for the company - though shares are still trading more than 50% off their 52 week high.

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Wednesday, March 12, 2008 7:39:15 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback

WM Logo

Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE: WM) shares rose today on speculation that Warren Buffett and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) may be preparing to invest in the company. Shares jumped nearly 20 percent yesterday and continued their rise today after falling to a 12-year low earlier in the week. Many investors believe that the cash-rich Buffett may be looking to buy up some cheap financials at these levels and WaMu is definitely on sale! So, is WM a stock worth watching?

Washington Mutual reported its first loss since 1997 in the fourth quarter after itw as forced to write-down the value of its home mortgage unit by $1.6 billion and set aside $1.5 billion to cover bad loans. The bank also said that it would have to put aside $1.8 billion to $2 billion in loss provisions for the first quarter. Meanwhile, WaMu’s credit rating was lower to BBB from BBB+, bringing it just two steps above junk bond status.

Many analysts and investors are concerned about the company’s large exposure to high-risk markets and loan types that are performing poorly. These loans include home-equity lines of credit that have recently begun to see problems in California and other states hit heavily by the mortgage crisis. However, the Central Banks’ recent plan to inject liquidity in these markets combined with efforts to make mortgages more affordable could end up saving them from much of these losses.

Some are speculating that Warren Buffett has already begun building a stake in the company and plans to eventually merge it with his other large holding - Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC). The idea may seem nothing more than a dream to some, but any such move could result in substantial value being unlocked for shareholders. WaMu shareholders would receive an ample buyout premium while Wells Fargo would get a cheap acquisition in today’s markets. Clearly, if the economy turns, this could become a great deal.

In the end, this is nothing more than a far-fetched rumor, but it is one that is definitely worth watching. Warren Buffett is one of the most popular investors, so his secrets get out more often than others. Whether or not there is any merit to these rumors remains to be seen, but investors should carefully watch for any Schedule 13D or Schedule 13G filings made by the great investor in WaMu!

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Wednesday, March 12, 2008 7:09:24 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback

Google Inc.’s (NDAQ: GOOG) may have forked over 20 times DoubleClick’s estimated revenues of $150 million, but the acquisition now looks like it could pay off handsomely. The search giant wrapped up the $3.1 billion deal yesterday after it received approval from regulators in the European Union (see story). Many believe that Google will be able to leverage its existing businesses to make this acquisition a huge success. So, is Google a buy now?

Google has always focused on textual advertising as it can be easily quantifiable in terms of sales and is easily integrated into its search engine. However, there is also something to be said for the so-called “display advertising” business that seeks to promote brands more than just generate sales. This is where DoubleClick steps in as it has relationships with virutally every major online publisher and more htan half of the online ad agencies.

The display advertising industry itself is worth around the same as the textual advertising business. The three major players, including Yahoo! (NDAQ: YHOO), Microsoft’s (NDAQ: MSFT) MSN, and Time Warner’s (NYSE: TWX) AOL, brought in over $10 billion in such advertising in 2007. Meanwhile, banners will account for more than 40% of the $19.5 billion expected to go to online advertising this year. All of this compares to a mere $5 billion in revenues from Google from its textual advertising business, in which it is the largest player.

The million dollar question is: How much can Google grow DoubleClick’s business? Many believe the answer to that question is “substantially” given the fact that the search giant already has both a platform and relationships with thousands of publishers and advertisers. The value then becomes very clear: If Google can take a mere 10% market share, it could mean new revenues of well over a billion dollars. Additionally, these revenues would be on a high profit margin, so they would impact the bottom line.

Many investors are hoping that this is the case, since Google’s textual advertising business has been waning lately. The acquisition also gives Google more exposure to different publisher and advertiser demands, meaning that it could convert itself to a one-stop shop for online advertising and squeeze others out of the space. In the end, these factors make GOOG a stock worth watching closely over the next year as investors get a glimpse of just how valuable this acquisition really was!

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Wednesday, March 12, 2008 4:36:23 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback