# Thursday, May 01, 2008
Exxon Mobile Corporation (NYSE: XOM) may have reported near-record earnings yet again, but huge numbers aren't good enough when expectations are high. The oil giant reported near-record profits of $10.89 billion on revenues of $116.8 billion, but shares dropped more than four percent before recovering slightly on the day. Many investors remain bullish on the energy markets, but this short-term blip has certainly sent a shockwave.

The big problem was with crude inventories that came in much higher than expected. This is bad news for oil producers like Exxon Mobile since a higher supplier typically means a lower price assuming that demand remains consistent. Meanwhile, a Nigerian strike that has kept oil prices at a high is coming closer to a resolution. This should help boost Exxon's oil output, but will likely lead to even higher crude supply.

The dollar also rallied today after bullish comments emerged from the Federal Reserve meeting that took place yesterday. Since oil is a dollar-priced commodity, the move had an adverse affect on crude prices. After all, an increase in purchasing power for the dollar means that more oil can be bought for the same dollar price. This means that the price of oil must drop in order to remain in equilibrium with the dollar's value.

In the end, these three factors combined with supply problems for Exxon Mobile led to a decline not only in this oil giant but also many other players in the sector. While this may only be a short-term blip, investors should be wary of an improving dollar and supply issues going forward. After all, the sharp rise in oil prices is only due to a small number of factors that could quickly change and slow down the dramatic growth!

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Thursday, May 01, 2008 5:47:17 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
Amkor Technology, Inc. (NDAQ: AMKR) added more than 20% to its shares midday Thursday after releasing impressive first quarter results. The Arizona-based semiconductor assembly company had net income more than double to $72 million, or 36 cents per share, from $34.6 million, or 18 cents per share, a year earlier.

These results handily beat Wall Street earning expectations of 26 cents per share - though Amkor sales missed expectations by about $1 million, coming in at $699.5 million. The strong earnings were a result of increased wireless sales and favorably currency exchange rates.

“We exceeded our sales and profitability targets for the first quarter due to select customer demand in certain wireless communications and networking applications, which partially offset the overall seasonal slowing that we had expected. Our first quarter net income included an approximately $9.5 million foreign currency gain principally due to the depreciation of the Korean won and the resulting remeasurement of our Korean employee benefit plan liability," sand CEO and Chairman James Kim.

The company also made strides by repaying over $100 million of debt in the first quarter - though the company still carries more than $1.6 billion of debt, this and previous pay-downs lowered interest expenses by 21% from a year earlier. Amkor expects net income for the second quarter of the year to be 32 cents to 36 cents per share.

Even with Thursday's gains, Amkor shares are significantly lower than their 52 week high of over $16 per share. As of publication, shares were up 21.62% to $11.61 per share.

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Thursday, May 01, 2008 5:03:18 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
# Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) finally announced that it will separate its majority-owned cable division after months of speculation. The media giant offered few details of how it would structure the transaction, but said that a complete separation of the 84% stake is in the best interest of both companies' shareholders. The announcement also comes at a time when Time Warner is struggling to revive its AOL unit and lift the margins on its film and television businesses.

Investors should watch this situation carefully as it could mean opportunity for profit. A transaction structured as a spin off could mean huge value creation for shareholders of Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC), but only after a few months. The theory is that most TWX shareholders that receive TWC stock in a spin off situation will sell it, which will put substantial downside pressure on TWC despite no change in fundamentals.

The selling pressure would drop the share price and reduce Time Warner Cable's earnings multiple. This undervaluation could persist for some time, but will likely be corrected when the next earnings announcement is made and analysts recalculate where the shares should be at historic multiples. These analysts will then likely upgrade the stock and recommend that investors pick up more shares to take advantage of the undervaluation.

Many investors are also closely watching the parent Time Warner in the event of a sale of its stake. This would generate substantial proceeds for the parent company that it could use to fund a share buyback program or boost dividends to unlock value. Share buybacks reduce the number of outstanding shares and therefore increase the earnings per share number and eventually the earnings multiple. Meanwhile, boosting dividends also typically leads to a higher valuation due to common investment models put in place to value companies.

In the end, there are many different routes that Time Warner could take to get rid of its stake and all of them are worth watching. Instances like these often provide investors with the ability to profit handsomely!

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Wednesday, April 30, 2008 5:41:58 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback