Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE: KKD) has been beaten up since its heyday and remains 75% off of its 52-week high. However, the troubled company reported strong earnings on Monday that sent its shares substantially higher and gave investors renewed hope for the future. The question is: Is this a real recovery or just a temporary blip on the radar screen before more declines hit the stock?

Krispy Kreme shares spiked nearly 8% yesterday after the company announced first quarter earnings of 6 cents per share compared to a loss of 12 cents per share during the same quarter last year. However,revenue for the first quarter fell 6.6% to $103.6 million, which is down from $110.9 million a year earlier. The decrease was due to a 10.3% drop in company stores revenues and a 2% drop in supply chain sales.

The increase in earnings is only due to a large write-down last year due to the refinancing on some debt. As a result, shareholders should not take this as any kind of major improvement in cost savings or other measures. Rather, the decline in revenues makes its quite clear that the company continues to face significant problems ahead that may erode shareholder value.

Krispy Kreme continues to feel the pressure from the industry slowdown. The chain opened 28 new stores during the first quarter while seven franchises closed. The company said it expects more franchises to close in the future and "the number of such closures may be significant". However, investors again shrugged off these comments and sent the stock higher after the announcement.

The chain also warned against the effects of higher raw material costs. The jump in food prices has led to a sharp increase in costs that the company may have trouble passing on to its consumers without hurting revenues. The result could be further margin pressures that could adversely effect shareholder value. In the end, it could be another couple of quarters before investors see any real signs of improvement for this company.

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6/10/2008 1:21:52 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
 Monday, June 09, 2008
Yahoo Inc. (NDAQ: YHOO) is facing more heat today after Carl Icahn sent another letter to the Board of Directors today expressing disappointment in their lack of a response to his concerns. The activist investor's previous letter had demanded that the troubled search company immediately sell itself to Microsoft in order to best serve shareholder interests. It will be interesting to see how Yahoo responds to this letter:

Dear Roy:

After reading Yahoo!'s press release put out on Friday in response to my letter of that morning, I cannot help but wonder if you even read my letter.

Again, Yahoo! keeps repeating misstatements in the hope it will convince its shareholders that these misstatements are valid. I cannot understand why the Yahoo! board feels so strongly about its "poison pill" severance plan and why it continues to refuse to rescind it. How can you continue to repeat that your severance plan is in the best interests of shareholders and employees? Indeed, Yahoo!'s own compensation advisor called the severance plan "nuts." Is it not true, as the shareholder complaint stated, that Microsoft's CEO earmarked $1.5 billion for employee retention (a benefit you neglected to tell your employees about)? Is it not better to incentivize employees to stay in their jobs than to quit? Instead of just continuing to repeat the mantra that we have made an inaccurate interpretation of your severance plan, why do you refuse to go into detail as to why our interpretation is incorrect? Additionally, a New York paper reported this weekend that "sources close to Microsoft said the severance plan was a 'big issue' when deciding what price they could pay for Yahoo!"

In your press release from Friday, you stated again that I do not have a credible plan for Yahoo! Did you even bother to read my letter, which went into great detail on what measures I would ask the new board to take? Ironically, while you keep inquiring about my plans, it is interesting to note that Yahoo!'s board has been busy reaping great compensation benefits. Indeed, you made approximately $10,000 per week last year -- not bad for a board member. I believe most of your shareholders would be interested in seeing your time sheets -- especially in light of the fact that, in my estimation, most of your so-called "plans" over the last few years have been failures. Remember the old adage -- those who live in glass houses should not throw stones. Perhaps most importantly, under my plan, I would ask the Board to bring in a talented and experienced CEO to replace Jerry Yang and return Jerry to his role as "Chief Yahoo!" It is extremely important to note that Google hired a great operator as a CEO who helped to transform the Company into a giant at the expense of Yahoo! According to publicly available financial information, while Google's income from operations grew 59% per year over the last two years, Yahoo!'s income from operations shrank 21%. What was the board doing over this period? Where was their great "plan"? I believe a new CEO with operating experience might well have had and might still have a very salutary impact on Yahoo! I ask again what your great "plan" has been over the last few years. Why did you permit Google to leave you in the dust?

I outlined a number of questions in Friday's letter. Why don't you do me the courtesy of answering my questions as I have answered yours?

Sincerely yours, CARL C. ICAHN

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6/9/2008 6:19:53 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
 Friday, June 06, 2008
Inspire Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NDAQ: ISPH) shares jumped more than 50% in early trading after its new drug to treat cystic fibrosis met its primary goal for a Phase III trial. The 352-patient, double-blind, 24-week placebo-controlled study demonstrated statistical significance for its primary efficacy endpoint. Secondary endpoints were also evaluated in the trial, which is great news for the company.

“The data from this Phase 3 trial with denufosol are encouraging for the cystic fibrosis community because it brings us one step closer to a novel treatment that addresses the basic cystic fibrosis defect," said Robert Beall of the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation. "There remains a high unmet medical need in the area of CF treatments and denufosol could be an important addition to the treatment regimen."

The drug, denufosol, was well-tolerated and had a favorable safety profile in the trial. Patient retention rates were high and similar etween treatments groups with approximately 90% of patients completing the 24-week placebo-controlled portion. The incidence of adverse events in the group was comparable to the placebo. As in previous trials, the problems were minor - coughing.

“The results from this trial are exciting because they demonstrate that denufosol’s novel mechanism of action, activation of an alternative chloride channel that is treating the underlying defect, had a clinically-meaningful impact on lung function that progressively increased over time," said Frank Accurso. "The improvement in FEV1 was achieved on top of aggressive use of multiple concomitant medications."

In the end, this announcement definitely makes Inspire Pharmaceuticals a stock worth watching as successful drug candidates often become takeover targets once all the risk is gone. The completion of this Phase III trial means one giant leap forward in this process.

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6/6/2008 3:38:09 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback
 Thursday, June 05, 2008
The nation's largest cellular telephone provider was born today after Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) agreed to purchase Alltel for approximately $28.1 billion. The deal will help Verizon's wireless business surpass that of AT&T Wireless to take a strong lead.

The deal also represents one of the quickest flips in history as Alltel's private equity owners just completed buying the company last fall for about $27.5 billion. The result was a fast $600 million profit in just about a year. The consortium had reportedly been sitting on huge debt-related losses and were pushing hard to sell.

Under the terms of the deal, Verizon will acquire the equity of Alltel for $5.9 billion and assume $22.2 billion in debt. The transaction is slated to be completed by the end of the year. The move caught investors by surprise given the fact that it was rejected in the past due to Vodafone's resistance - a parter with Verizon Wireless.

The move also positions Verizon increasingly as a wireless business as opposed to a wireline business and is a logical fit. Both companies share the same cellular technology, CDMA, and Alltel services areas that are not serviced by Verizon. This positive spin helped push shares of Verizon up some five percent on the day.

In the end, this move underscores that the wireless industry is no place for independent telecom providers. It is the giants that thrive in this arena and even private equity funds are starting to realize that they cannot compete. It will be interesting to see how this affects others in the sector.

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6/5/2008 3:51:50 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
 Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Yahoo Inc. (NDAQ: YHOO) has suddenly turned into one of the most active dealmakers in its bid to reduce the pressure from shareholders. A whirlwind of new deals were announced today with advertising partners ranging from Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) to CBS Corporation (NYSE: CBS). Meanwhile, the company is desperately trying to strike a deal with Microsoft in leiu of an outright acquisition.

Shareholders like Carl Icahn are still not satisfied and are demanding a sale of the company. Many are not impressed that it took Yahoo this long to "rewrite" the company and turn it around. After all, if management was so confident in the company then why has the stock been stagnant for so long? To many investors, it comes down to a vote of confidence. Management still faces a lot of opposition that could prove difficult to qwell without a sale.

According to many shareholders, Yahoo must overcome a large (and growing) gap with Google in the search market in order to win back investors. And that might take a little longer than most shareholders are willing to wait...

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6/4/2008 4:51:14 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
 Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Yahoo Inc. (NDAQ: YHOO) leaders continue to contradict themselves as shareholders become increasingly fed up. Court documents revealed today that Yahoo had rebuffed a partnership with Google Inc. (NDAQ: GOOG) just one day before Microsoft Corporation's (NDAQ: MSFT) bid on anti-trust concerns.

"We are focused on long-term value creation rather than short-term gains," read a statement prepared for Yahoo executives. "Short-term analysis of the revenue for potential of outsourcing monetization may not take into account the longer term impact on the competitive market if search becomes an effective monopoly."

These comments come in sharp contrast to Yahoo's later position, during Microsoft talks, that it was conducting a test with rival Google to sell its search ads. The 180 was part of a strategy by Yahoo to seek alternatives for its business rather than selling out at Microsoft's $31 per share offer.

Now, shareholders are increasingly wondering whether or not Yahoo executives were honestly ever considering the Microsoft offer, or whether they simply will not sell out at any price. The news also comes just after several lawsuits aimed at pushing the transaction through by law or overtaking the board.

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6/3/2008 5:39:07 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
Wachovia Crop.’s (NYSE: WB) poor results combined with the ouster of CEO Ken Thompson is fueling speculation that the firm could be for sale very soon, with analysts tagging JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) as the most likely suitor.

Charlotte-based Wachovia is facing some major trouble due to its mortgage market exposure, largely a result of its ill-timed 2006 acquisition of specialty ARM lender Golden West Financial Corp. Though the deal was designed to expand Wachovia into more of the West, its real result was Wachovia buying a huge amount of mortgages at the peak of the housing market. Even Thompson eventually admitted the purchase of Golden West was a bad move given its timing – though by citing only the timing, Thompson seems to ignore the underlying risk of the mortgage debt even without the “mortgage meltdown.”

In the wake of the acquisition, Wachovia has cut its dividend by 41% while being forced to dilute equity by issuing $8 billion worth of new shares.

Several analysts, including those at Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank, see JP Morgan as having an interest in buying the faltering bank because Wachovia has a strong presence in the Southeast – an area JP Morgan CEO James Dimon has expressed an interest expanding in.

Even so, there have been no known material talks of a sale by anyone at Wachovia with anyone at JP Morgan, leaving some analysts saying a deal remains unlikely – at least for now.

Regardless of a sale, expect more executive heads to roll at Wachovia – which, given the stock’s performance, seems a long-time coming.

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6/3/2008 2:17:42 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
 Friday, May 30, 2008
Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE: PBR), known as Petrobras, announced a discovery in the Gulf of Mexico today. The diversified oil and gas company confirmed the discovery of hydrocarbons in ultra-deep waters in the Central Gulf of Mexico. The Stones #3 well, located in Block WR 508, found oil in multiple sandy lower tertiary reservoirs and is 25% owned by Petrobras. Future drilling and assessment activities are planned to define size and viability.

These results confirm the potential of significant oil reserves in these reservoir in the Gulf of Mexico, where Petrobras operates the Cascade and Chinook fields which at the present are in the production development and facility construction phase. Petrobras will be the pioneer company, both in ultra-deep waters in Lower Tertiary reservoirs and in using an FPSO type platform in the region, the production of which is slated to go online in June 2010.

In this same area, Petrobras also holds 25% stakes in the Saint Malo field. This field is operated by Chevron and is in the assessment and extension exploratory drilling phase. Also, studies are being done to select the production development project for Saint Malo. These discoveries help the company diversify its holdings and enhances the value of its Exploration and Production project portfolio in deep waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

Petrobras also announced its first quarter results today, which came in ahead of expectations. Consolidated net income rose 68% year-on-year thanks to a decline in operating expenses and the reduced appreciation of the Brazilian Real currency. The increase in oil and gas production and the upturn in oil and oil product prices also contributed to the improved performance. EBITDA climbed 26% year-on-year as production edged up 2%.

Meanwhile, Petrobras also saw its market cap increase 69% year-on-year due to oil and gas discoveries in the pre-salt layer, the new exploratory frontier, and potential production growth. Ironically, one of its biggest problems was obtaining offshore support vessels from companies like Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG), which have been booked for years in advance following the rapid run-up in oil prices in recent months - a bullish sign for these companies.

Interestingly, Petrobras also saw a significant decline in its US volume as the economic crisis worsens. This caused a sharp drop of 14.96% in its international sales volume, but was also helped down by the sale of its Bolivian refineries. This means that domestic refiners in the US are likely to continue to see problems in the near future. Luckily, Petrobras was able to offset this with strong growth in domestic sales volume.

Lehman Brothers analyst, Paul Cheng, also raised his price target for Petrobras to $62 per share. He maintains his "equal weight" rating on the company, saying also that he expencts the first quarter to come in at $1.02 and full year 2008 to come in at $5.10.

5/30/2008 8:30:09 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
Dell Inc. (NDAQ: DELL) shares surged higher today on stronger than expected earnings. The PC-maker announced sales of $16.1 billion, which exceeded analyst estimates of $15.7 billion. Revenues in Asia jumped 19% as overseas sales finally topped those in the U.S. for the first time. The only unit that didn't see an advance in sales was the desktop PC market, which continues to struggle.

Michael Dell has attributed the gain to a new turnaround fueled by a retail-driven sales strategy. The company has added 13,000 retail outlets in the world's 20 largest economies over the past year to help it expand beyond the United States. Dell abandoned its strategy of selling only over the phone and internet, which led to its recent recapture of market share from competitor Hewlett Packard.

Dell is also targeted developing countries with cheaper machines. The PC maker is aggressively entering these markets with lower-priced products, which is driving the company's average price down but increasing its overall revenues. The effect on the bottom-line may be somewhat negative, but it appears to be a trade off that many investors are willing to accept.

Finally, Dell has also taken many cost-cutting measures. The company cut 1,000 jobs in the first quarter and plans to trim its expenses by $3 billion annually over the next three years. This will be accomplished through a combination of workforce reductions and a move to lower-cost manufacturers.

"We still have much work to do to restore our competitive position," said Dell on a conference call. "I am encouraged by the acceleration in our growth - you will see much more."

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5/30/2008 4:44:42 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
UAL Corporation (NYSE: UAUA) and US Airways Group (NYSE: LCC) have decided not to merge, according to the chief executives of both airlines. The executives noted that certain issues could significantly dilute the benefits of a merger transaction right now. They admitted that consolidation was necessary in the industry, but is unlikely to happen in 2008. The comments conclude months of merger talks in hopes of combating rising fuel costs.

Rising jet fuel prices have put substantial pressure on airlines, who were already in a fragile financial state. In fact, several airlines had just recently emerged from bankruptcy last year. Since then, several more have entered into bankruptcy. Mostly, these have been regional players like Frontier Airlines and Honolulu Airlines. However, rising fuel costs threaten to put the major carriers at risk if they cannot find a solution.

Mergers are considered healthy in these situations because a larger company is able to realize better economies of scale. That is, one entity purchasing more jet fuel at one time can get a better deal due to the greater quantity. Additionally, the transportation costs and other associated costs are also lowered for the same reason. Combined with rising fares, this could be enough to save many of the airlines now experiencing problems.

The problem is that the pilot unions are often unwilling to work together or accept steep pay cuts. The strong airline unions have been the culprit behind many of the failed talks, including those involving Northwest. UAL and US Airways did not cite these reasons, but media reports have said that opposition from labor unions and the costs of integration were the two key factors behind the decision not to merge.

Ultimately, the decision not to merger could cost both airlines a lot of money if jet fuel prices continue to rise at their current rates.

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5/30/2008 4:06:37 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback