# Friday, June 27, 2008
KB Home (NYSE: KBH) shares dropped after the nation's largest homebuilder announced that its losses widened in the second quarter. Weaker sales and falling home prices led to a 55 percent drop in revenues as the company also booked charges related to the lower value of unsold homes, joint venture deals and land option contracts.

KB Home reported a net loss of $255.9 million, or $3.30 per share, compared to a loss of $148.7 million during the same time a year ago. Meanwhile, revenues plunged to $639.1 million from $1.41 billion a year ago, driven down by lower housing and land sale revenues.

"Despite substantially lower home prices, relatively low interest rates and an abundance of choices, potential new home buyers remain reluctant to purchase a home," Mezger said in a statement. "But as housing affordability continues to improve, we expect todays hesitant buyers to become a healthy source of demand for new homes, fueling the eventual housing market recovery."

The problem is so large at this point that some rental rates are higher than mortgage rates for like-kind properties! Still, people prefer to pay rent instead in order to avoid paying money on a property that is going to decline in value. This simply emotional fear has been causing a very real decline as inventories continue to rise.

Foreclosures have risen substantially over the past few months, and very few buyers are stepping in to purchase houses on the cheap. This environment of high supply and low demand has forced down prices for simple economic reasons. The problems won't be resolved either until buyers start to step in and purchase inventory.

When will buyers step in? That's the million dollar question for home buyers and companies like KB Home alike...

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Orleans Homebuilders (OHB)

Friday, June 27, 2008 4:34:40 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
# Thursday, June 26, 2008

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Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) advised selling shares of the financial services firm Citigroup, which sent shares sharply lower on the day. Goldman cut its recommendation for US Brokers to neutral from attractive and strongly recommended that investors sell shares of Citigroup, citing multiple problems, including more asset write-downs, higher loss provisions for consumer credit and the potential for more capital raises, dividend cuts or asset sales.

Shares of Citigroup fell more than 6% on the news, reaching a brand new 52-week low. Goldman's recommendation marks a sharp reversal from the positive stance that it took following the near collapse of Bear Stearns. The news also comes just days after Goldman Sachs itself was downgraded to market perform by analysts at Wachovia "in light of renewed economic fears" despite being the strongest investment bank in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs cut its second quarter and fully year forecasts for several brokers. The largest cuts were made on Citigroup and Merrill Lynch where it now sees the firms posting losses in both the second quarter and full year. Goldman expects Citigroup to take a $9 billion writedown and Merrill to take a $4.2 billion writedown in the most recent quarter. Both firms are expected to report their second quarter earnings in mid-July.

In the end, the brokers and investment bankers are still in big trouble and face large future writedowns. Goldman Sachs remains one of the few large investment banks that has been faring well against the problems, but even they have seen a downgrade. It will be very interesting to see where things head from here now that the negative sentiment is now out in the open with even analysts beginning to downgrade the sector...

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Interactive Brokers Group, INc. (IBKR)
Citigroup Inc. (C)
Jefferies Group, Inc. (JEF)

Thursday, June 26, 2008 4:29:52 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
# Wednesday, June 25, 2008
MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) shares are trading higher on the day in a continued recovery from its recent lows as some investors are beginning to find themselves bullish on the bond insurer. This sentiment is apparent in the price of the July $5 options, which are trading at a high $0.75 per contract. The price implies that some investors are betting that MBIA will rise above $5.75 during the next 23 days before the July options expiration.

Investors who are neutral to bullish may be interested in purchasing a covered call on MBIA to take advantage of this premium. The return on investment for this position would be approximately 15.31% for a 23-day period assuming that the stock doesn't plummet below $4.90 during that time.

Shares of MBIA have plummeted in recent weeks after an analyst from UBS noted that the company could face an additional $6.8 billion to $7.5 billion in losses on its mortgage-backed securities and structured finance portfolio. Brian Meredith noted that these calculations were based on UBS' mortgage research team's cumulative mortgage-securities and credit loss expectations.

Recently, MBIA's credit rating was cut to "AA" from "AAA", which means that the insurer may face difficulty generating new business. After all, who is going to insure their bonds with someone who has a less than perfect credit rating.

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Wednesday, June 25, 2008 3:17:29 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback