# Monday, August 04, 2008
Retailers may not get the boost they are looking for after reports surfaced that consumer spending increases were offset by higher prices. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending declined 0.2% in June, according to the Commerce Department. This means that companies like Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) and Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) may not have realized the benefits of the tax rebates, which have instead flowed into the hands of mining and energy companies behind the higher costs.

Inflation rose 0.8% this month, which is the largest increases since February 1981's reading of 1 percent. The problem the government now is that its tax rebate program is failing and the Fed may be forced to raise rates, which could further erode the credit problems in the U.S. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, but pressure by the government to make the rebate programs work may force them to hike rates at least a little to ease inflation.

Retailers are now left between a rock and a hard place. A rise in interest rates would likely reduce consumer spending in the long-run because loans would be more expensive. However, it would enable them to enhance their profit margins since the cost of goods would presumably move lower. However, if interest rates do not rise, inflation will remain a pressure on margins and consumer spending may take awhile to turn around. In the end, it may be awhile before retailers recover.

Related Companies
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
Target Corporation (TGT)
Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD)
Retail Ventures, Inc. (RVI)

Monday, August 04, 2008 5:00:15 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
# Friday, August 01, 2008
MiddleBrook Pharmaceuticals (NDAQ: MBRK) shares have dropped substantially from their highs earlier this year, but recently rebounded on news of a $100 million investment. The firm had been the center of buyout speculation for some time as they were in talks with several interested parties; however, the firm opted to take a $100 million capital infusion from Equity Group Investments. The move has many investors speculating the firm may be worth a lot more than it is trading at right now.

Under the terms of the agreement, MiddleBrook will issue EGI 30.3 million shares of common stock and a five-year warrant to purchase 12.1 million shares of common stock with an exercise price of $3.90 per share for an aggregate purchase price of $100 million. The move will bring MBRK's shares outstanding to around 86.31 million and should boost the market capitalization by $100 million to $224 million. This equates to an implied price of $2.60 per share, which pins the current discount at around 16% assuming the company can prove it is worth the same valuation as before the investment.

MiddleBrook will also receive a new chief executive officer that has a lot of experience in the pharmaceutical industry. The news may not be as good as a buyout for shareholders, but it does give new investors a chance to get in at a cheap price with management incentivized to push shares to at least $3.90 per share in order to realize the value of the additional warrants over time. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen, but MiddleBrook pharmaceuticals is definitely a stock to keep an eye on in the meantime.

Related Companies
Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST)
Targanta Therapeutics Corporation (TARG)
Par Pharmaceutical Companies (PRC)
Oscient Pharmaceuticals (OSCI)
King Pharmaceuticals (KG)

Friday, August 01, 2008 7:41:57 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
# Thursday, July 31, 2008

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) continues to mount a near-parabolic recovery along with much of the banking sector. Investor sentiment has changed rapidly as the government rescued the two largest U.S. mortgage underwriters and signaled a possible end to the problems plaguing the sector - at at least a signal that the peak has passed. So, where are things headed from here?

Bank of America may not be as strong as the recent run-up in share price would have investors believe. The stock topped the list last week for stocks that rose in price but had the largest outflow of money. This means that the price increase that we’ve seen may not really be the vote of confidence that it seems. Meanwhile, Bank of America will also continue to struggle with the mortgages associated with its acquisition of Countrywide Financial.

The government’s bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may provide would-be homeowners with more options, but it may not do all that much to stop the rising tide of foreclosures. In fact, just last week we saw a report showing that the rise in foreclosures is anything but over. Meanwhile, it will take awhile for consumers to gain enough confidence to start buying homes in order to increase property values - the other thing that could slow foreclosures.

Many analysts are also not so sure about Bank of America. Stifel Nicolaus & Co cut its full-year profit estimate on the bank, citing concerns about continued deterioration in its consumer loan portfolio. The nation’s second largest bank reported not long ago that its profit fell 41% in the second quarter on losses in its struggling mortgage operations, but still managed to top analyst estimates. However, it had to more than triple its loan loss provisions - that is, money set aside for bad loans.

Accelerating losses in its home equity, domestic credit card, residential mortgage and small business loan portfolio are creating problem for the bank. Meanwhile, cash is flowing out of the stock at a record rate. Only a rise in the stock price is causing investors to look the other way - a mistake that could cost them in the future.

Related Companies
Cass Information Systems (CASS)
Bank of Montreal (USA) (BMO)
West Coast Bancorp (WCBO)

Thursday, July 31, 2008 8:25:50 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback