# Thursday, August 14, 2008
The internet has become the new operating system with many companies moving many of their operations online. Microsoft Corporation (NYSE: MSFT) holds the monopoly on desktops and had the lead on web browsers until recently when competitor Firefox took a large share of the web browser market. So, how much is Firefox worth and should Google Inc. (NDAQ: GOOG) consider looking at Firefox?

How much does Firefox make? SpreadFirefox.com indicates that 622,003,431 people have downloaded the Firefox web browser with experts estimating that the firm makes $1 per download from the Google search box in the corner. The numbers suggest that the company is making between $100 million and $200 million per year in gross revenues with solid growth rates.

Additional revenues could be easily realized through other browser add-ons, default homepage ads, and other techniques. Since the Mozilla Foundation is more of a non-profit organization, revenue-generating activities have been kept relatively simple and limited in scope. Moreover, changes may alienate some users. Regardless, there is ample opportunity for increases.

Next, expenses must be considered. Mozilla's employee count is estimated at around 90 with more hiring planned in the future. Assuming that the firm has 100 full-time employees at $100,000 per employee, plus $50 million a year in other equipment/service costs, total expenses are around $60 million per year. This pegs the annual gross profits at around $40 million to $140 million.

Public companies also face additional costs that must be included in the net profit calculation. Sarbanes Oxley compliance costs around $5 million a year with taxes taking out an additional chunk of change. This would leave the firm with around $40 to $90 million in net income after all is said and done.

Investors know that public companies all trade at earnings multiples based on growth rates. Given the market growth, investors could expect a minimum price-to-earnings ratio of 25x earnings, which implies a valuation of around $1 billion to $2.2 billion. This is relatively conservative given the recent valuation of Facebook by Microsoft and acquisitions by Google.

Of course, Mozilla has repeatedly insisted that it would not go public. However, growing pressure on Google to find new revenue growth streams may force them to take a look at the company (Microsoft wouldn't have a chance) while the increasing valuations may be too much for some to resist.

Related Companies
Google Inc. (GOOG)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Yahoo Inc. (YHOO)

Thursday, August 14, 2008 5:32:17 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
# Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) shares continued their declines after it announced disappointing results in the third-quarter. Sales managed to grow an impressive 18% year-over-year - helped by a 35% growth in agricultural equipment - to $7.07. However, the most wasn't enough to impress Wall Street analysts that were expecting $7.23 billion. Operating margins also decreased a full percentage point to 13.2%, which is always a bad sign despite higher revenues.

The big concern surrounding Deere & Company its costs would increase and put pressure on its margins. Agricultural commodity prices have moderated and put some pressure on revenues, but the real problem is the cost of raw materials. The company's financial services operations also saw operating profits fall 21 percent to $111 million because of higher expenses, an increase in leverage, and a higher provision for credit losses.

Deere & Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in four business segments. The agricultural equipment segment manufactures and distributes a line of farm equipment and related service parts, including tractors; combine, cotton and sugarcane harvesters; tillage, seeding and soil preparation machinery; sprayers; hay and forage equipment; integrated agricultural management systems technology, and precision agricultural irrigation equipment.

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AGCO Corporation (AG)
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Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
Lindsay Corporation (LNN)
Wednesday, August 13, 2008 6:14:53 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
# Tuesday, August 12, 2008
LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) shares surged higher after the solar-maker reported better-than-expected second-quarter results in a 6-K filing with the SEC. Revenues surged 89.2% to $441.7 million after total wafer shipments increased 60.8% during the quarter. Meanwhile, gross profit margins ended up at 25.4%, meaning it didn't sacrifice profits for revenues. LDK Solar also upwardly revised its outlook for the year as it retains a bullish sentiment on the industry.

"We experienced substantial revenue growth during the second quarter as our wafer capacity expansion exceeded our expectations," stated Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar. "We are pleased with our continued success of executing our growth strategies. In addition to our wafer capacity expansion, tremendous progress has been made to date on the construction of our polysilicon plants and the project remains on schedule."

The Chinese solar maker now expects revenues between $486 million and $496 million on shipments of between 210 megawatts and 220 megawatts of wafers in the third quarter. The company also lifted its full year guidance to between $1.65 and $1.75 billion compared to between $1.08 and $1.18 billion earlier. Meanwhile, analysts expected only $1.16 billion, which is why we saw the dramatic jump in today's trading when shares soared more than 26% briefly.

Despite the dramatic move, LDK Solar remains well below its 52-week highs of $76.75 per share. This is because the primary driver downwards was a reduction in growth estimates for the industry, which forced down PE multiples. Currently, LDK Solar trades at just 26x earnings, which is far below its prior valuations of closer to 50x earnings. This mirrors much of the rest of the industry that has also seen multiple contraction.

In the end, if solar companies like LDK Solar can continue to outperform like they have yesterday, we may see an increase in the multiples that could justify a higher share price on two levels. Earnings per share will be greater and the multiple will grow larger. However, if the rest of the industry shows signs of weakness, then investors have have to count on only one part of this equation to profit.

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Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ)
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Trina Solar Limited (TSL)
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JA Solar Holdings (JASO)
Evergreen Solar Inc. (ESLR)

Tuesday, August 12, 2008 4:15:29 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback