Friday, February 29, 2008

NOVL Logo

Novell, Inc. (NDAQ: NOVL) shares moved sharply higher after the company reported better-than-expected earnings in its latest 8-K filing with the sEC. Shareholders were surprised by a swing to profitability as well as strong growth in its Linux business. Meanwhile, many are looking forward to seeing how the company will integrate its new acquisitions as potential upsell opportunities to expand revenues even further. So, what does the future hold for this once-struggling technology company?

Novell reported revenues of $231 million on net income of $8 million profit in the first quarter. This compares to revenues of $218 million on a net loss of $21 million during the same time period last year. The swing to profitability caught many investors by surprise as the company was boosted by strong performance from its Linux platform business, which grew 65 percent year-over-year. However, the majority of its revenues were still derived fromits workgroup products, which grew a modest 1 percent year-over-year.

“We are very pleased with our results this quarter. We delivered product revenue growth across all business units and continued expense control this quarter,” said Ron Hovsepian, President and CEO of Novell. “These results are indicative that our strategic initiatives are yielding tangible results and that we are on the right path to achieve long-term, sustainable profitability.”

Novell’s partnership with Microsoft is one of the main drivers for growth in its Linux platforms business. Although they are only into the second year of the deal, Novell has already earned $141 million from the arrangement - or 59 percent of what the five-year agreement stipulates. There is also a lot of opportunity for upselling inside of those relationships, which could prove to be even more of a boost in the future. And finally, Novell also sees opportunity with the launch of Microsoft’s new Windows Server 2008, which it sees as an opportunity to attack Microsoft’s installed base.

“Microsoft is managing the outward competition, but they are also managing their older installed base and the different versions that they are on,” Hovespian said. “We see that as opportunity for our company to attack that installed base. I’m sure the competitive fires will remain strong between both companies.”

The majority of today’s stock price movement, however, likely comes from Novell’s strong guidance. The company upped its guidance for 2008 with revenues now slated to be between $940-970 million compared to prior estimates of $920-945 million. Meanwhile, the company expects operating margins to be between 7 and 9 percent excluding all acquisition-related intangible asset amortization. This is far higher than what many analysts were expecting and may even be raised in the future if the company continues to see stronger growth on the heels of its Linux platforms division.

In the end, this is all great news for shareholders as Novell continues to push forward. Shareholders are not only looking towards solid growth in its Linux business but also for the results of the firm’s acquisitions of virtualization management vendor PlateSpin and open source collaboration vendor SiteScrape earlier this month. It will be interesting to see how the company integrates these businesses as more potential upsell opportunities. Combined, these factors make NOVL a stock that is definitely worth watching!

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Citrix Systems, Inc. (CTXS)
Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)

2/29/2008 6:33:02 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
3Com Corp. (NASDAQ: COMS) is up almost 20% on reports that Bain Capital LLC and Huawei Technologies Co. plan to reapply for U.S. regulatory approval to buy the network-equipment maker.

The financial terms of the original deal probably won't change much - a $2 billion price, 85% stake for Bain and the remaining minority share of Huawei. The difference is Huawei would not have access to sensitive technologies that blocked the deal in the first place.

Last week, the deal fell apart because a little-known wing of the Treasury Department known as the CFIUS appeared likely to block the acquisition. As SECInvestor's earlier article said on the matter:

"Huawei, the largest network company in China with strong ties to the country's Communist government, has been accused in the past of selling communications equipment illegally to rogue states such as Saddam Hussein's Iraq. In addition, the company raises concerns even superficially as it is run by a former Chinese Army Officer.

3Com provides some network security solutions to the U.S. Defense Department, and with Chinese hackers seen as a major threat to U.S. infrastructure this acquisition was a hot political issue. In fact, the senior Republican member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee even sponsored a bill to specifically prevent 3Com's sale.

Under such scrutiny, Bain decided to drop its request for approval of the deal by the CFIUS, effectively meaning the deal is dead in its current form. The problematic Defense Department business is actually done only by a small wing of 3Com known as TippingPoint, and there is a possibility the deal could be renegotiated to exclude that unit."

Though it seemed likely that Bain would be just as happy to leave the deal dead given the state of the economy and 3Com's rather weak business currently, instead the firm may look to capitalize on the regulatory hurdles in order to secure a lower purchase price. With 3Com's core business still a distant second to giant Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), even a deal at a lower price is good news for 3Com shareholders.

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Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)
2/29/2008 6:14:32 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

DELL Logo

Dell Inc. (NDAQ: DELL) shares fell sharply today after the company announced disappointing results in it’s latest 8-K filing with the SEC. The computer-maker cited high-than-expected costs as the reason behind its earnings shortfall despite laying off 3,200 employees and taking other cost-cutting measures. Many shareholders are now questioning the company’s ability to execute upon its long awaited turnaround plan that is now facing another setback. So, is Dell a stock worth buying at these depressed levels or perhaps more of a short candidate than anything else?

Many investors are concerned about the chronic cost increases that Dell faces in the computer hardware business. During the fourth quarter, the company saw its revenues expand 10% while its operating income and net income both fell by 6%. This is a clear indication that profitability was waning due to either increased costs or lower selling prices. Gone are the days where Dell’s superior inventory management and online selling provided it with a competitive advantage. Now, even Dell faces lower selling prices across the board while its costs are going up due to expansion outside of pure Internet sales.

“While Dell continues to drive towards a world-class cost structure and competitiveness we have much work to do,” Mr. Dell said. “Resurgent growth puts us on a strong footing to improve our cost position, scale expenses and enhance productivity across our business. I am confident that from this base we can continue to drive improvements in profitability.”

The kicker was a short outlook where the company stated that it will “continue to incur costs as it realigns its business to improve growth and profitability” which may “adversely impact the company’s near-term performance”. Dell also hinted that it expects a slowdown in consumer demand as customers display more “conservative spending” as a result of the credit crunch. Combined, these comments are likely what sent shares down today as investors now know that they shouldn’t expect results to improve at all in the near-term.

The one bright spot in its future is sales growth seen in countries outside of the United States, which was up 16 percent and now account for nearly half of the company’s total revenues. Growth was particularly strongin BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries where revenues grew 36 percent on a 50 percent increase in units. Meanwhile, Asia Pacific countries and Japan saw revenue growth of 28 percent while Americas International revenue grew 22 percent. Dell will likely continue to rely on strong growth abroad to offset what will obviously be lower sales in the US as consumer credit continues to be a problem.

In the end, this is another disappointing quarter for Dell shareholders. The company’s old paradigm no longer works in today’s world and we have yet to see if it can adapt and turn itself around. Overseas growth in emerging markets has done exceptionally well, but the company will need to reign in its costs before it can regain any trust. Regardless, it is a stock that is definitely worth watching over the next year or so as it attempts to maneuver a turnaround!

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Lenovo Group Limited (LNVGY)
Rackable Systems, Inc. (RACK)
International Business Machines (IBM)
CSP Inc. (CSPI)

2/29/2008 5:51:21 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback

PCX Logo

A year ago coal was a dull market after a warm winter in 2005-2006 generated record inventories and sent coal prices plummeting. As a result, most coal stocks saw declines of 50 percent or more from late 2006 to early 2007 and few buyers could be found. However, the situation has now greatly changed as the ongoing tightening of supply and demand in the US coal market has caused coal prices (and stock prices) to skyrocket. So, what are the forces behind this move and where are the opportunities in this sector these days?

Spot prices for coal, which is the price of a ton of coal for immediate delivery, are trading at new highs while US coal supplies have tightened due to a series of new environmental laws and safety regulations. These new regulations were primarily targeted at the east coast and forced many smaller mining operations to shut down as they simply could not afford the cost of compliance. Meanwhile, larger players were forced to scale back their operations due to the increased cost of doing business. At the same time, coal demand surged as a result of demand abroad.

China is the source of most of this demand after it became a net importer of coal in 2007. The country is already the largest producer and consumer of coal, but is now seeing its consumption grow even more rapidly. In fact, the Chinese government even banned exports of coal in China to help keep costs down and ensure there was enough to go around. All of this demand from China is eating up the supply that was traditionally earmarked for Europe, which is forced to import the majority of its coal. Now, Europe is turning to the US in order to fill this need.

There have also been several recent events that have helped boost prices. First, heavy rains in South Africa have impacted their coal exports while the fourth-largest coal exporter in the world also stated that it would need to keep more of its own mined coal for domestic consumption. Secondly, Austrialia has also been suffering from heavy rains that has disrupted coal production for the largest exporter. And finally, Indonesia is expected to become the world’s largest coal producer, but no longer believes it will be able to supply as much as previously expected.

So, what stocks are worth watching to take advantage of these circumstances? One of the most successful coal stocks this year has been Patriot Coal (NYSE: PCX), which spun off from its parent Peabody (NYSE: BTU) in October. Since then, the stock is up a healthy 56.59% as a result of strength in the coal market and a compelling future development in the Appalachians where it has 446 million tons in reserves alone that represent some of the lowest sulfer (highest quality) coal in the market. Combined, its 9 million ton reserve base dwarfs that of competitors and are in strategic locations that enable them to easily export abroad and ship domestically.

Investors looking for a more diversified play on the entire sector may want to check out the Market Vectors-Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL) that offers a sort of “mutual fund” focused on just coal companies. The ETF’s top 14 holdings - or 70% of its portfolio -are all up and midstream producers that are marginal producers and should give good exposure to the sector. The only problem with the ETF is its stake in Huaneng Power (NYSE: HNP), which is a power-generating consumer of coal and not a producer.

Other coal stocks to watch include Consol Energy (NYSE: CNX), Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI), Joy Global (NDAQ: JOYG), Bucyrus International (NDAQ: BUCY), Transalta (AMEX: TA), and James River Coal Company (NDAQ: JRCC). All of these companies should benefit from the rise in coal prices, but the extent of which depends on how many long-term contracts they can ink while prices are high. For now, many of them are struggling as they export cheap coal under old contracts. Regardless, these are all stocks that are definitely worth watching!

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Foundation Coal Holdings, Inc. (FCL)
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Evergreen Energy Inc. (EEE)
National Coal Corp. (NCOC)

2/29/2008 5:17:05 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback
 Thursday, February 28, 2008

EOG Logo

EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG) shares moved sharply higher today after the company announced it increased organic production growth estimates for 2009 and 2010 to 13 to 15 percent from the previously stated annual average of 10 percent. The oil company also disclosed information about four promising new crude oil and natural gas plays that could contribute to future reserve and production growth. And finally, it increased the potential reserve recovery from its Fort Worth Barnett Shale and Uinta Basin natural gas players. Combined, this is great news for shareholders as increased production schedules combined with record crude oil prices make for a profitable combination!

“By applying our expertise in horizontal drilling and completion techniques, EOG is positioned to replicate its success in the Fort Worth Basin Barnett Shale and North Dakota Bakken with several newly identified onshore North American plays that show substantial promise,” said Mark G. Papa, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “Although some of these discoveries are in the very early stages of delineation, they are expected to impact EOG’s reserves and production in the coming years.”

There are two key things worth noting in these recent statements. First, EOG Resources has developed better horizontal drilling and recover techniques that should allow it to achive higher per well reserve recoveries not only in Fort Worth but in future projects as well. Secondly, there are several remaining potential production increases that have not been considered for EOG’s production growth targets for 2009 and 2010. One in particular is a fourth horizontal well being drilled in northeastern British Columbia’s Horn River Basin where the company owns 140,000 net acres.

In the end, these production increases and potential production increases combined with increasing energy prices should not only enable EOG Resources to meet its future growth targets but surpass them by a substantial margin. Shares have rise over 20 percent today, adding billions to the company’s market cap, but there may be some room yet for even more upside when things settle down. Combined, these factors make EOG a stock worth watching closely!

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Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

2/28/2008 6:13:35 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback

Unfortunately for Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE: LLY), the FDA has rejected its application to sell a once-a-month injectable version of its schizophrenia drug Zyprexa.
 
The pharmaceutical company announced that the FDA issued a "not approval letter" for the drug, due to concerns about excessive sedation. This means that Lilly needs to perform additional studies before the drug can be reconsidered. This decision overrules a nonbinding recommendation issued earlier this month by FDA advisory panel that the drug should be approved despite concerns surrounding excessive sedation.

Given that the FDA usually follows the recommendation of its advisors, this news was surprising to the company and investors. Eli Lilly understandably said it was disappointed by the FDA's decision.

The drug is an alternative to Zyprexa, which is designed to ease hallucinations and other symptoms of schizophrenia. Zyprexa is already on the market in tablet form, but this new drug would allow administration only once a month.

A "not approval letter" usually means a drug is dead, but even if Eli Lilly can convince the FDA this hurdle will cause a significant delay to market.

This is all bad news for the Indianapolis-based company because though it has almost $19 billion in annual sales, this drug was predicted to add $500 million annually within two years. Long-term, a pharmaceutical company is only as good as its drug pipeline, and with Eli Lilly shares down only about 2% on the news the share price may not yet reflect the full consequences of this decision.

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2/28/2008 6:11:30 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback

MBRK Logo

MiddleBrook Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NDAQ: MBRK) shares continue to surge today after the company said earlier this month that it hired Morgan Stanley to explore strategic alternatives, including a possible sale of the company. A recent FDA approval in January helped triple the company’s market value while an analyst commented that the company could look at a premium of 30 percent in case of a potential sale. Many other investors believe that the company could see an even higher premium given its novel Pulsys technology that would also be acquired. So, is MBRK a stock worth adding to your portfolio?

MiddleBrook received approval for its New Drug Application (NDA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its one-daily Moxatag Tablets 775mg for the treatment of adults and pediatric patients 12 years and older with pharyngitis and/or tonsillitis secondary to Streptococcus pyogenes. According to the company, the approval was based on the company’s Phase 3 clinical study of more than 600 adults and pediatric patients 12 years and older in a double-blind, double-dummy, randomized, parallel-group, 50-center non-inferiority trial. News of this approval jumped shares from around $1.50 to over $3 the next day.

“We are extremely gratified to have received FDA approval of our MOXATAG NDA,” stated Edward Rudnic, Ph.D., president and CEO of MiddleBrook. “As the first and only once-daily amoxicillin therapy approved for marketing in the United States, we believe MOXATAG represents a major advance for patients and doctors seeking safe, effective, and convenient treatment options for strep throat. We now look forward to continuing our ongoing strategic evaluation process from a position of greater strength with this approval in hand.”

The approval brings to market the first major product that illustrates MiddleBrook’s PULSYS technology. This technology is essentially a change in the dosing paradigm that allows for more effective treatments that only have to be taken once daily. PULSYS exposes bacteria to rapid antibiotic pulses within the first hours of initial dosing, which appears to cripple bacteria’s natural defense mechanisms and eliminate them more efficiently and efectively than traditional infectious disease therapy regiments. MiddleBrook is one of the only high-tech companies focused on the antibiotics sector and seeks to redefine infectious disease therapy with this process. And it seems to be working in this latest drug release.

“Compared to four times daily penicillin, once-daily MOXATAG has shown comparable efficacy and tolerability in eradicating Group A streptococcal infections of the pharynx. However, the once-daily dosing of MOXATAG is a major advantage,” said lead study investigator Stan L. Block, M.D., professor of clinical pediatrics at the Universities of Louisville and Kentucky Medical Schools. “For the first time, physicians in the U.S. have the option of an FDA-approved once-daily amoxicillin therapy to treat their adolescent and adult patients with pharyngitis/tonsillitis. This should ensure better first- line therapy compliance with a penicillin class of antibiotic.”

In the end, all startup biopharmaceutical companies are risky ventures as they have no revenues and high R&D overhead. That said, MiddleBrook recently received an NDA and go-ahead from the FDA and was even able to raise an additional $21 million through a stock offering. This means that they should have a product to market within the next year while other investors are showing enough confidence to capitalize the company and keep it alive until it becomes profitable. However, given the steep rise in recent days, we could see a pullback before any more substantial gains. Combined, these factors make MBRK a stock worth watching in 2008!

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2/28/2008 5:31:57 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback

ELN Logo

Elan Corporation (NYSE: ELN) is a pharmaceutical turnaround story that may soon get even better. The pharmaceutical company had a brush with bankruptcy in 2002 and reported a wider-than-expected loss of $405 million for 2007. However, the company said it expects a sharp turnaround in 2008, forecasing revenue growth of over 30 percent and possibly exceed $1 billion, driven by sales of its flagship multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri. The company currently receives 50 percent of the revenues from the drug when sales exceed $700 million. Altogether this turnaround story already has shares trading near their 52-week high, but many investors believe that they could get much higher next year.

Elan is also considering spinning off its development and manufacturing division Elan Drug Technology (EDT), which could be worth up to $1.5 billion. The company said that EDT has been consistently profitable and an important source of financing for the firm, with EBITDA of $125.5 million on revenues of $295.5 million in 2007. Meanwhile, the remaining biopharmaceuticals division posted a loss of $155.9 million on revenue of $463.9 million. Management reportedly wants to saddle the technology unit with $1 billion of debt to unlock value in its remaining biopharmaceuticals business as it pushes into profitability with the help of Tysabri. This is a classic move that could pay big dividends.

So, how will these events impact shares? Well, Tsybri is a blockbuster drug but does face a small hurdle with its newly-disclosed risk of liver injury. This is common for many drugs and the company kept its sales forecast, but it is a concern that it worth noting. Meanwhile, spin offs are well known for unlocking value in situations like this one. Now that the biopharmaceutical division won’t need additional financing through EDT, the move makes perfect sense to unlock value through debt reduction. Additionally, spin offs in general tend to outperform the overall market during their first two years for a variety of reasons.

In the end, this is all great news for shareholders. Elan has a blockbuster drug on its hands with revenues that could exceed $1 billion next year while it is also taking action to unlock value through a spin off. It not not too common to find a company with such savvy to act so quickly to unlock shareholder value. Shares may be trading near their 52-week high now, but they could definitely extend much higher over the next year. This makes ELN a stock that is definitely worth keeping an eye on in 2008!

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2/28/2008 4:51:41 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback
 Wednesday, February 27, 2008

The Brink’s Company (NYSE: BCO) shares rose 1.4 percent today after the security company announced that it would spin off its home security unit in order to appease a growing number of dissident shareholders. The news comes after enormous pressure from activist shareholders Pirate Capital and MMI Investments, both of whom planned proxy contests to overtake the board if changes were not implemented. The company has finally agreed with the activists after completing a review of its strategic options with the help of the Monitor Group and Morgan Stanley. The Brink’s Home Security unit is one of the largest and most successful residential alarm companies in North America and the spin-off should unlock substantial value for shareholders who have been struggling to realize value in their investment.

“Today’s announcement, which is the culmination of a comprehensive and thorough review of the strategic options available to the company, further demonstrates the board’s commitment to enhancing shareholder value,” said Michael T. Dan, chairman, president and chief executive officer of The Brink’s Company. “Both BHS and Brink’s, Inc. are market leaders that outperform their respective peers on almost every operating metric. As separate publicly traded entities, each company should benefit from enhanced management focus, more efficient capitalization and increased financial transparency. In addition, shareholders will have a more targeted investment opportunity, and incentives for management and employees will be more closely aligned with company performance and shareholder interests. Given these advantages, we are confident that this transaction will enable BHS and Brink’s, Inc. to more quickly realize the valuations they deserve. I commend the employees of both BHS and Brink’s, Inc. for their hard work and dedication in building these two great businesses. I am confident that both companies will continue to create value for their shareholders, employees and customers.”

The spin-off will convert Brink’s into two separate publicly traded companies:

  1. The Brink’s Company includes the businesses of Brink’s Inc., the world’s premier provider of secure transportation and cash management services. The company has approximately 54,000 employees at operations in more than 50 countries, had 2007 revenues of approximately $2.7 billion and operating profit of $223.3 million.
  2. BHS, which has approximately 3,600 employees, is one of the largest and most successful residential alarm companies in North America. In 2007, BHS had revenues of approximately $484 million and operating profits totaling $114.2 million. BHS operates in all 50 states, the D.C. and several markets in two western providences in Canada. BHS’s ability to provide an outstanding customer service experience as awarded by J.D. Power and Associates, has created a loyal customer base that includes approximately 1.2 million systems under monitoring contracts. Through its dedication to high quality customer service, BHS maintains one of the highest subscriber retention rates among major residential alarm companies.

Brink’s also reached an agreement with activist hedge fund MMI Investments whereby one of their nominees will be supported as a director at the 2008 annual meeting while another director of theirs will be nominated at BHS following the spin-off. In return, MMI has agreed to withdraw its request to nominate any directors at the next annual meeting. Combined, these events represent yet another victory under the belt of activists and should result in substantial value creation for shareholders that many estimate as high as 40% to 50% premium. These factors make BCO a stock that is definitely worth following over the next few months!

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2/27/2008 9:12:28 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) said today that the U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission approved early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino review period for its acquisition of BEA Systems Inc (NASDAQ: BEAS). Early termination means the Justice Department completed the review in advance of the 30-day maximum period allowed under antitrust law.

BEA has a special meeting of its stockholders planned for April 4 in order to vote on the merger. Though getting U.S. regulatory approval clears a major hurdle, the transaction still requires BEA stockholder approval and European Union regulatory permission.

Oracle said it agreed to buy BEA for $19.375 per share in January after earlier offers from Oracle were spurned for being too low, such as last year's $17 per share offer that valued the company at $6.7 billion. The current offer is worth approximately $8.5 billion.

The real question is, will the deal actually add value for Oracle now that it will probably be completed? Oracle said it expects only expects BEA to add one to two cents per share to adjusted earnings in the first year after the deal closes. Oracle has been on a spending spree in the last few years with CEO Larry Ellison spending more than $25 billion buying competitors like PeopleSoft, Siebel Systems and Hyperion Solutions.

Despite these purchases, Oracle has seen mediocre performance, especially in the last twelve-months. Combine this with Ellison's continued divestment from the company - 1 million shares just last month - and Oracle is definitely a hold, not a buy, right now.

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2/27/2008 8:17:29 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

Yahoo! Inc.’s (NDAQ: YHOO) recent attempts to convince shareholders that Microsoft Corporation’s (NDAQ: MSFT) bid significantly undervalues the company have yielded very little. However, some people (1, 2) are now beginning to question why they haven’t mentioned a big piece of the puzzle - Yahoo’s stake in Asia. Yahoo’s stake in Yahoo Japan and China’s Alibaba alone are valued at around $11 billion by most analysts. Meanwhile, many others peg the true value much higher given the enormous growth potential in these markets. The search company’s dominance in these markets is well ahead of Microsoft and Google Inc. (NDAQ: GOOG) and could be a good argument for a buyout price higher than $50 billion.

Yahoo’s stake in Alibaba, which stands at around 39 percent, paid huge dividends after being acquired for $1.7 billion in August of 2005. Since then, the company has IPO’d and dramatically grew in market value while also continuing to grow its revenues at a break-neck pace. Interestingly, Alibaba is also concerned about the Microsoft acquisition, saying that it has a “reputation of using monopolistic tactics”. Foreign control of large companies is also a politically sensitive issue for Beijing, which has forced many prospective buyers to cut their stakes or sipmly delay the application process indefinitely.

Yahoo’s stake in Alibaba combined with its 34% of Yahoo Japan represent strategic high-growth investments that are just now starting to pay dividends. The U.S. markets are beginning to slow in online advertising and these Asian markets may by the key to driving future growth. The search company’s substantial investment in this area may only be worth $11 billion now, but it could very well be worth much more in the future as growth picks up. Many are now calling for Yahoo to work these numbers along with their existing calculations in order to come up with a clearly derived $40 per share valuation that they can take to Microsoft and use to negotiate a higher price.

In the end, Yahoo will probably end up being acquired by Microsoft. Management has had many opportunities to turn around the company and it would take a substantial amount of time to reach the $50 billion valuation that Microsoft has offered to pay. So, it is now up to the board to convince shareholders that they deserve a higher price. Whether or not they can do this remains to be seen, but many are now saying that they should attempt to place a higher value on their Asian stakes. Combined, these factors make YHOO a stock worth watching over the next few months!

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2/27/2008 7:03:13 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

RADN Logo

Radyne Corporation (NDAQ: RADN) shares spiked yesterday after Monarch Activist Partners voiced their support for Discover Group in its attempt to gain control of two board seats, despite an announcement that the company was already exploring strategic alternatives. The activist hedge funds believe that the company’s management may have an inflated sense of value and may resist reasonable offers made by potential suitors. As a result, they want to appoint their own directors to oversee the process and ensure that the company respects the rights of shareholders. So, is this entire situation one worth watching?

Radyne announced earlier this month that they had retained Needham & Co. as their financial advisor to assist it in exploring strategic alternatives, including a possible sale of the company. The firm had previously assisted the company in evaluating inquires received from time to time from prospective suitors. The company has not yet set any time frame for the conclusion of this process, but many shareholders are hoping that it can be completed within the next 3 to 6 months given that the company is already “in talks with various parties”. Many believe that the offer must come in at a 40 to 50 percent premium in order for current management to even consider selling the company.

Here’s the most recent letter sent by Monarch:

Monarch Activist Partners (Monarch) strongly agrees with your recent announcement to explore strategic options. We hope this news marks the beginning of actions that are more conducive to the best interests of Radyne’s shareholders.

The purpose of this letter is to address the February 13, 2008 13D filing by the Discovery Group LLC, a beneficial owner of close to ten percent of the company. We urge the board to amicably resolve Discovery’s request and appoint the two nominees to the Board immediately. Despite the announcement to explore strategic options we believe management potentially has an inflated sense of value that can be delivered under their tutelage and may resist reasonable offers given the company’s current position and marketplace conditions. Most importantly, a costly and protracted proxy contest does nothing to benefit shareholders and only furthers the rift between management and the company’s most significant owners. If the strategic alternatives process is open and fair, the Board and shareholders can only gain by appointing Discovery’s nominees.

We hope you give this request your full consideration.

In the end, this is all great news for RADN shareholders who have been suffering with subpar returns for some time now. Since the company is already in talks, we can assume that there are many buyers that are interested in the firm. The real question is how high management expectations are set. If Discovery is able to install its own board members, then there is a high likelihood that we will see a sale. Otherwise, it will be interesting to see what kinds of offers come in and how management responds to them. Regardless, this is definitely a company that is worth watching during the next few months!

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2/27/2008 6:14:05 PM UTC  #    Comments [2]  |  Trackback

NFLX Logo

Netflix, Inc. (NDAQ: NFLX) shares spiked more than ten percent today after the company raised its first quarter and full year outlook on the heels of interest income and the completion of its $100 million stock buyback program. The online movie rental company also boosted its subscriber targets despite increased competition from companies like Amazon.com, Inc. (NDAQ: AMZN), Apple Inc. (NDAQ: AAPL) and its main competitor Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE: BBI). So, is this a trend that the company can maintain or a simple one-time blip amid a declining industry?

Netflix continues to benefit from a very favorable competitive landscape as well as improved cost-efficiencies across subscriber acquisition and overall marketing expenditures. This landscape will likely intensify in the comping year with digital downloads, but these offerings shouldn’t impact the DVD rental market for at least another few years. Netflix also announced a new popular program that allows subscribers unlimited streaming of about 6,000 movies and television episodes from their computer at no additional charge - a service that is quickly gaining popularity.

Netflix announced that the two main factors behind the raise in its net income was favorable interest income as well as its share buyback program. The movie rental company completed its share $100 million share buyback program announced earlier this year in record time. It repurchased 3.8 million shares of common stock at an average price of $25.96 per share, net of expenses. Meanwhile, the firm received higher interest income from its investments not related to the activities the company. It is unclear exactly how hight this impact was, but it will be interesting to see in their next quarterly report.

In the end, Netflix is proving that it has some staying power versus its steep competition. The guidance today not only showed increased operating efficiency in the fourth quarter (profits out-pacing revenues), but also a number of new subscribers that will help its bottom line. This company was a pioneer of online movie rentals and continues to impress investors as it works on new ways to compete against brand new competition from some of the world’s largest tech giants. Combined, these factors make NFLX a stock worth watching!

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West 49, Inc. (WXX)
ChoicesUK plc (CHUK)
SHICHIE Co. Ltd.

2/27/2008 5:32:50 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback
 Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Sybase, Inc. (NYSE: SY) shares rose marginally after the software-maker agreed to to boost its share buyback program as part of an agreement with one of its largest shareholders. The firm announced a $300 million self-tender offer at prices between $28 and $30 per share and will use its best efforts to complete approximately $82.9 million in additional open market repurchases prior to the completion of their 2009 annual meeting. The shareholder, Sandell Asset Management, will in turn drop its bid to takeover the board and limit its future acquisition of stock. So, should you ad some Sybase to your stock portfolio?

Sandell Asset Management had been concerned about the company’s large cash position. Sybase noted that it had about $735 million in worldwide cash, with between $225 million and $250 million of free cash. However, restricted cash and long-term investments reduce this amount to around $700 million in available cash balance. Looking ahead, the company estimated that it would need working capital in the United States of about $85 million and $115 million outside of the United States. Clearly, this is excess cash that could be leveraged elsewhere to deliver value for shareholders rather than sit in a bank account.

So, is this buyback a good deal for shareholders? The current agreement calls for purchasing at a significant premium to the current market price. The premium currently stands at around 9.5 percent and could rise higher, since the additional $82.9 million buyback is not tied to a specific price. There are also many other benefits brought on by a share buyback program given that it will reduce the number of outstanding shares by over 10 percent. Since it was financed out of cash on hand and not earnings, the reduction should boost the earnings per share. Some of this may be priced into the stock, but it is still a benefit worth mentioning.

Sybase is also quickly turning itself around after being left for dead not long ago. The software-maker announced record earnings in 2007 with a 17 percent increase in revenues and 26 percent increase in net income, which indicates that it has been improving its profit margins. Meanwhile, the company is continuing to take a larger portion of the database market from competitors like Sun Microsystems who had the opportunity to acquire the company on the cheap not long ago! In the end, these factors all make SY a stock worth watching closely over the next few months!

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2/26/2008 6:44:05 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expected to announce sometime next week that its Jaguar and Land Rover brands are being sold to India's Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE: TTM), according to a British union.

Though Jaguar and Land Rover are both currently owned by Ford, the U.K.-based brands continue to be largely manufactured there. Unite union spokesperson Andrew Dodgshon, said in an interview today that a sale may happen as soon as March 5. Ford already said back in January that Tata was the preferred bidder for the units.

Ford, the world's third biggest automaker behind General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Toyota (NYSE: TM), is selling Jaguar and Land Rover to focus on its core brands after losses of $2.67 billion last year and a record $12.6 billion in 2006. India-based Tata would expand outside the Asian auto markets through the acquisition of such well recognized brands.

More than anything, this sale will help Ford stabilize its financial situation by not only getting a cash influx of around $1.5 billion from the sale but by shedding Jaguar, which Ford has admitted is losing money.

Tata Motors is part of Tata Group, India's biggest conglomerate which includes steel production and consulting services. Tata built the first Indian-designed car and plans to build a $2,500 car later this year. The real importance of this deal in long-run is probably not a milestone on Ford's turnaround but rather a milestone on Tata's path to becoming a major automotive player worldwide. Given the advantages the Indian company has in both the cost of design labor and manufacturing labor, investors in other car companies should be worried.

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Honda (HMC)

 

2/26/2008 6:23:08 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

Google Inc. (NDAQ: GOOG) shares are down sharply today after new data from comScore was released showing a decline in the number of web users clicking on ads. The news prompted many analysts to cut their price targets and issue warnings as the vast majority of Google’s revenues comes from its pay-per-click program. However, others insist that these concerns over overblown and that the technology giant will be able to quickly recover thanks to stronger pricing. So, is this a time to sell Google stock or simply a good entry point while shares are cheap?

Google’s AdWords program faces a variety of challenges going forward. comScore reported that Google’s paid clicks dropped 7 percent in January from the previous month and were relatively flat with the same period last year. This is the lowest click-through rate since comScore started reporting the data. Google had indicated some concerns about paid clicks back in the fourth quarter, but blamed the slowdown on technical changes designed to reduce the number of accidental and fraudulent clicks by users. Some analysts believe that these technical improvements should lift conversion rates and lead to stronger pricing.

Google also faces a variety of other issues related to its pay-per-click business. Businesses bidding on keywords are quickly finding that many of them are now priced so higher that they are just breaking even upon conversion. This peak in keyword pricing means that Google’s revenue growth will likely begin to slow as the revenue-per-click peaks. Since this program accounts for around 90%+ of the company’s revenues, this almost certainly will lead to slower growth. Slower growth means a lower multiple, which means a lower stock price despite the same earnings.

Google is also dealing with increasing fraudulent activity. Some businesses are clicking on competition ads in order to raise their marketing costs and reduce their conversions. A recent report by ClickForensics found that 28 percent of all clicks were fraudulent, which is up from 19.2 percent in 2006. This compares to an industry rate of 16.6 percent, which may prompt some advertisers to switch their campaigns to Yahoo Publisher or MSN Adcenter until Google can fix the problem. However, it can be a hard problem to fix and so far Google has just been refunding money to keep advertisers happy.

In the end, Google faces a variety of problems with its primary source of revenues. The recent slowdown in paid clicks may be attributable to a broader economic slowdown, but the reality is that its other businesses will inevitably slow down as well. The stock has already dropped substantially off of its high as investors slowly come to this realization, but it may face further declines unless the company finds a way to incease or diversify its revenues. Combined, these factors make GOOG a stock worth watching!

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2/26/2008 5:52:50 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback
 Monday, February 25, 2008

TLCV Logo

TLC Vision Corporation (NDAQ: TLCV) woke up to an interesting note from the founder and former chief executive of its arch rival LCA-Vision Inc. (NDAQ: LCAV)- he purchased 5 percent of the company and wants to be CEO! Dr. Stephen Joffe blasted the company for the more than 60 percent drop in TLCV’s shares over the past year, which he called “a self-inflicted wound” and “a byproduct of bad decision-making by the board and management”. The LasikPlus founder then proposed joining the board as executive chairman or chief executive to implement strategic and business model changes for the troubled company. So, is this a development that makes this stock one worth watching for your portfolio?

Dr. Joffe was one of the founders of the laser vision correction industry and was reportedly already in talks about joining the company to implement his strategy and effect a turnaround to restore value in the troubled franchise. These talks ultimately fell through and now the large shareholder is just trying to protect his sizable investment from poor strategy and capital decisions being made by the company. For example, recent Dutch auctions offered unhappy shareholders securities worth roughly three times the price of shares trade at today. The board accomplished this with an enormous mountain of debt and interest costs that could eliminate profitability for many years ahead.

Dr. Joffe also makes several other arguments in his letter to the board. Here’s a complete copy:

Thank you for calling me back yesterday, I appreciate your time and your effort to explain away the more than 60 percent drop in TLC’s shares over the past year. Frankly that loss in value is a self-inflicted wound–a byproduct of bad decision-making by the board and management.

On top of the list of ill-conceived judgments is the board’s decision to buy off many of its critics with a disastrous Dutch auction that offered unhappy holders roughly three times the price the shares trade at today. To accomplish this, management and the board burdened the corporation with an enormous mountain of debt and interest costs that could sharply suppress, if not eliminate, profitability for many years to come.

TLC is part of an industry that is still in its infancy. As a matter of principle, I want to see TLC succeed and prosper because of the life-changing difference it can make in the lives of patients.

Yet we are already more than 40 days into calendar 2008, and I seriously question whether TLC has the right strategy, the right people, or the right business model to survive and succeed in the years ahead. I am not the only major shareholder who is deeply disturbed by these concerns.

Currently I am still a significant holder of TLC’s shares, but unlike other troubled shareholders, I understand the economics and challenges of the laser vision correction business from the standpoint of a manager and operator. I founded LCA-Vision, TLC’s largest competitor, and as chairman and CEO I was directly responsible for that company’s enormous success, until my departure in February 2006.

Right now, my intention is to protect my already sizeable investment in TLC. Before the board’s abrupt decision to initiate the disastrous Dutch auction, we were in serious discussions about my joining TLC to oversee the turnaround. Consider this letter a formal request to renew those discussions. I believe all shareholders stand to benefit from my extensive experience as one of the founders of the laser vision correction industry.

Please respond 5:00 pm (eastern) on Monday the 18th of February 2008, to discuss my joining the company as Executive Chairman or CEO to implement my strategic plan to turnaround and rebuild this formerly valuable franchise for the benefit of all shareholders. I am available to speak with you throughout the upcoming weekend and can be contacted via email at xxxxx or by cell phone on xxxxx or xxxxx.

While I would prefer not to take this effort public, your failure to move forward will force me to take whatever actions are necessary to protect my investment and ensure a timely turnaround of TLC’s business.

In the end, this is great news for TLCV shareholders as Mr. Joffe is an experienced executive that has a lot to offer. Clearly, his involvement with their main competitor will yield valuable information while his turnaround strategy likely will not harm the company any more than it has already harmed itself. Given the unrest of many existing shareholders, the likelihood of his election to the board in the event of a fight are also reasonable high. Combined, these factors make TLCV a stock worth watching over the next few months!

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2/25/2008 6:45:44 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

TTWO Logo

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NDAQ: TTWO) shares soared today after Electronic Arts Inc. (NDAQ: ERTS) offered to acquire the company for $26 per share, or about $1.9 billion, which is a 64 percent premium over the stock’s prior closing price. The video game maker rejected the offer, calling it a “highly opportunistic” attempt to take advantage of the upcoming release of Grand Theft Auto IV set for April 29th. The company said that it would resume buyout talks after the game’s release, but EA fired back that there can be no certainty in the future that any buyer would pay the same high premium being offered today. So, is this a stock worth watching for your portfolio or is the stock now grossly overpriced?

Activist hedge funds have been pushing Take-Two towards a sale for some time now amid poor financial results, accounting problems, and controversy surrounding violent and sexual content in the company’s games. These hedge funds, which own a combined 46% of the company, were successful in forcing the company to evaluate a sale last March but nothing came of it. Then, billionaire activist Carl Icahn joined the fight back in November - a great invesment in today’s terms! These activists now likely own more than 50% of the company and will definitely vote in the best interests of shareholders if a serious offer is made for the company. They will also take action if the company decides to ignore great bids.

The other key point within this story is that the $26 per share offer was the second one made by EA. The first $25 bid was rejected and never presented to shareholders for reasons unknown (maybe it wasn’t material enough?). This is important because it could mean two things: (1) There are other unannounced potential bidders for the company, and (2) there is a good possibility that the company could hold out for another sweetened offer. Often times, initial offers are low-balled at first to gauge interest and then built up until it meets investor demands. Clearly, EA is interested in Take-Two’s hit titles and it will be interesting to see how much they are willing to pay for them.

Hank Greenburg also points out another interesting point to this story. Electronic Arts sent a letter to Take-Two not long ago arguing that it faces ongoing financial, legal and operating issues and a very intense competitive environment. In fact, EA even said that it would be increasingly difficult for the company to create sustainable shareholder value while it remaisn exposed to considerable risk of value loss. Just recently, EA also commented that once GTA IV ships, Take-Two will again be dependent on less-popular titles and face increasing challenges to compete with larger and better-capitalized competitors. So, all of this begs the question of why they are interested in the company at all?

In the end, it will be interesting to see how activist shareholders respond to this rejected offer given their new found wealth. Investors can bet that they will take action if they believe that the offer represents a fair price in order to unlock value. This is why shares are currently trading above the $26 per share buyout price and why many are so bullish on the stock. Combined, these factors make TTWO a stock worth watching!

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2/25/2008 5:32:46 PM UTC  #    Comments [1]  |  Trackback

RED Logo

Reddy Ice Holding Corporation (NDAQ: FRZ) directors may be in for a fight after a large activist hedge fund has nominated its own slate of directors while quickly ramping up its stake in the company. The Shamrock Activist Value Fund announced its slate of candidates for the company’s board of director earlier this month while increasing its stake to more than 14.38 percent in recent days. Many investors are hoping that the activist hedge fund will take action to unlock value in the company, whose shares are trading well off of their 52-week highs and well below their intrinsic valuation. So, is Reddy Ice a stock worth watching for your portfolio given this activist involvement?

Reddy Ice announced at the end of January that its proposed acquisition by GSO Capital Partners had been cancelled due to the ongoing problems in the credit markets. Shamrock had called the $31.25 per share buyout price “grossly inadequate” and suggested a potential conflict of interest existing between the company executives, some board members, and the hedge fund. The company said it will continue to explore transactions with GSO and review other alternatives available to the company. It is unclear whether Shamrock’s attempt to takeover the board is an attempt to prevent a takeover or an attempt to sell the company to a higher bidder. However, shares continue to rise ahead of the anticipated proxy fight.

Reddy Ice is set to release its financial results on Wednesday, February 27th along with a conference call to discuss results. Many investors are expecting to see slightly lower results for the fourth quarter after the company guided lower three times since July of last year. Most recent estimates peg the full year revenues to be between $335 and $345 million and net income to be between $14.8 and $19.7 million or $0.66 to $0.90 per share. Adjusted EBITDA is seen to be between $85 and $90 million. Meanwhile, many analysts were expecting revenues of $351 million with net profit of $15.9 million and EBITDA of $86 million. It will be interesting to see how its actual results compare given the difficult market conditions.

In the end, this is all great news for Reddy Ice shareholders who stand nothing to lose and everything to gain from Shamrock’s involvement. If the hedge fund is able to install its own directors and conduct a real auction of the company, shareholders go see a substantially larger upside to this company. Obviously, there is value to be realized from this point given GSO’s valuation of $1.1 billion while the company is currently priced at just $541 million with no material change. Combined, these factors make FRZ a stock worth watching closely over the next few months!

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2/25/2008 4:42:21 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
 Friday, February 22, 2008

AAPL Logo

Apple Inc. (NDAQ: AAPL) shares fell sharply today amid increasing concerns that it will not meet its sales goal of 10 million iPhones this year. Meanwhile, reports also surfaced that a growing number of unlocked phones are being used on other carriers and hurting its revenue share with AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T). The new product only accounts for a small portion of the firm’s revenues this year, but analysts are predicting that it could account for upwards of a quarter of its revenues during the next four years. So, are these problems that Apple can overcome or are they in some serious trouble?

Apple is facing two large problems with its iPhones. First, there are reports of illegal shipments of exported iPhones returning to the United States and being sold for far less. It is believed that Apple generates approximately $100 per sale in the United States, but this development drops that number far lower. Secondly, there are an increasing number of unlocked iPhones that are causing the company to lose out on revenue from carrier partnerships. It is believed that Apple generates more than $200 in gross profit over the life of the phone through such arrangements. Reports have shown that over a million such unlocked iPhones have hit the market since the product was released.

The question shareholders have to ask is just how much the iPhone is worth to Apple. Shares began at around $85 per share when Steve Jobs first announced the new phone before dropping more than 40% of their value from their peak. This drop has many analysts believing that the stock is undervalued, especially given its strong free cash flow generation. Other suggest that negative news surrounding the iPhone and iPod will only make things worse before they get any better. And finally, there are some that are concerned about the rising cost of the iPhone as it could hurt sales of the legitimate copies while encouraging more consumers to seek illegal imports.

In the end, Apple shares will likely be volatile over the coming months as investors try and sort out the true impact that these events have on sales. It will be interesting to see if Apple decides to eventually drop its costs in order to encourage more buyers and take advantage of its lucrative carrier partnerships. Meanwhile, there seems to be no slowdown in unlocked iPhones. However, as the iPhone goes more mainstream, it will be consumed by less tech-savvy people that will be less likely to purchase and use an unlocked iPhone. Combined, these factors make AAPL a stock that is definitely worth watching over the coming months!

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Silicon Graphics, Inc. (SGIC)
Lenovo Group Limited (LNVGY)
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
Sony Corporation (SNE)

2/22/2008 8:58:59 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

MOT Logo

Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) shares are under pressure after few buyers appear to be interested in its handset business. The division has been on the auction block for three weeks and top vendors Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK), Samsung Electronics, and LG Electronics have all expressed zero interest. This has many investors concerned that the great Carl Icahn may have over-estimated the unit’s value. This has pushed the stock down below $11.50, a level not seen since Carl Icahn first took an interest in the company. So, is this a stock worth watching at these levels?

Motorola’s prospects may look bleak, but not everyone is convinced that the company is in trouble. Many long-term investors insist that one bad year on the design side doesn’t necessarily mean it is in serious trouble. Others believe that the company would still represent a great value for someone who wants to step into the wireless arena. And what about the lack of interest for the handset division? There are some that believe buyers are worried that the products may not be worth as much without the Motorola logo, which means that it is simply an “integration decision” rather than a “financial decision” not to buy.

Billionaire Carl Icahn also continues to count himself among the bulls on the stock. The activist investor insists that the handset division is worth $19 billion and needs to be separated in order to attract top management. This valuation is equal to the divisions sale’s last year and compares to Motorola’s total market value of $25.7 billion. The actual valuation of the unit can be debated. It produced one in every three cell phones within the U.S. market last year, but it did so with losses totalling $1.9 billion. Meanwhile, there are already signs that carriers are beginning to feature more phones from other competitors.

In the end, this is bad news for Motorola shareholders. A prolonged search process only further damages the prospects of the division as many more analysts are switching to a “sell” on the company. Shareholders can count Carl Icahn on their side, however, who may opt to take more drastic measures and call for a spin-off, private equity buyout, or other method to unlock the value in the unit. Regardless, this is definitely a stock that is worth watching over the next few months!

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Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Alcatel-Lucent (ALU)
Powerwave Technologies, Inc. (PWAV)
QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM)

2/22/2008 8:32:52 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
Financier Carl Icahn, now worth more than $14 billion, disclosed in a 13G filing today that he now owns slightly more than 5% of the manufacturer Keystone Consolidated Industries, Inc. (OTC: KYCN). Though the nature of the filing indicates Icahn only has a "passive" investment in the company, news of his position sent the stock up over 5%.

Keystone is "a manufacturer of steel fabricated wire products, welded wire reinforcement, coiled rebar, industrial wire and wire rod for the agricultural, industrial, construction, original equipment manufacturer and retail consumer markets" in the U.S. The company is small, with a market capitalization of only $100 million, and its reputation hasn't fully recovered from filing for bankruptcy protection in 2004.

On paper, Keystone has been performing quite well recently with $57 million in net income for 2006 on $440 million in revenue - the company has a P/E of only 1.5 as the stock is hovering around its 52-week low price.

The company does have $360 million in total liabilities that are anchoring its stock price, but Keystone seems to be taking serious steps to become more robust. It just recently announced a reduction in its salaried workforce as well as $25 million in additional shares available to existing shareholders, the proceeds of which will be used to reduce the balance of its expensive revolving credit line.

Icahn certainly has a stellar track record, and his vote of confidence in Keystone, like his confidence in J.C. Penny, definitely makes it worth watching closely.

Icahn's Portfolio
BEA Systems (BEAS)
Biogen (BIIB)
CSX Corp (CSX)
Imclone Systems (IMCL)
J.C. Penny (JCP)
Lear Corp (LEA)
Motorola (MOT)
Time Warner Cable (TWC)
Time Warner (TWX)
Williams Companies (WMB)


2/22/2008 8:11:52 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE: JCP) reported a steep drop in its fourth-quarter net income yesterday, citing weaker consumer spending. The middle-market retailer was forced to increase its promotional levels and in-season clearance activities to retain revenues, but profits dropped on the lower margins. The company also projected first-quarter and fiscal-year earnings largely below analyst expectations. Luckily, the news came as little surprise to shareholders who were expecting heavily losses, and shares actually moved up on the day. So, with such low expectations, is J.C. Penney a company worth looking at going forward?

Retailers always suffer during cycles where consumer spending falls, but they quick jump back when things return to normal. The big question becomes when a return to normalcy will occur. Consumer spending was hit thanks to declining housing prices due to the subprime collapse. Many consumers were tapping their home equity line of credit to pay off credit card bills, so when that source of funds dried up spending began to slow. Meanwhile, foreclosures, defaults, and bankruptcies are continuing to rise as consumers have no way out of debt. This has caused the securities for these instruments to also fall dramatically in value. Combined, these factors have led to the tough market and low levels of consumer spending in recent months.

Billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn quietly amassed a huge stake in J.C. Penney that was revealed earlier this month. The exact size of the stake is unknown, but sources close to the situation say it is among his top five holdings. The activist investor is known for building stakes in undervalued companies and then taking action to unlock that value through sales, spin-offs, and restructurings. It is unclear what his plans are with J.C. Penney, but he clearly believes that the stock is undervalued. This follows similar rhetoric from other activists like Bill Ackman on Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT). It appears that many now believe that the retail sector is undervalued and are buying up substantial stakes.

It is impossible to deny that many retailers like J.C. Penney are trading at a substantial discount to their past valuations. J.C. Penney is trading at just 9.39x earnings and 13x forward earnings - a cheap stock by any account. In the past, this company has traded with a ratio upwards of 20x. This means that purely on a valuation basis, the stock is 50% undervalued! Many also insist that the breakup value of the company also exceeds its market price, which makes it a fail-safe investment. In the end, these factors make JCP a stock worth watching over the next year or so!

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sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD)
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Gottschalks Inc. (GOT)
Retail Ventures, Inc. (RVI)
Dillard’s Inc. (DDS)
Overstock.com, Inc. (OSTK)
Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN)

2/22/2008 5:34:59 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback
 Thursday, February 21, 2008
MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) is making headlines today after quadrupling its fourth-quarter net income on strong casino performance combined with a huge outside investment. Net income climbed to $872.2 million from $201.6 million a year ago with revenue increasing 4.5 percent to $1.93 billion, both of which exceeded analysts' estimates. These results were partially driven by a 5% increase in hotel revenue, a 2% increase in gambling revenue, and a 17% increase in lucrative baccarat volume.

Though MGM's core businesses of resorts and gambling seem strong, especially given the economy, they fail to account for the monstrous climb in net income. Instead, it was largely helped by Dubai World's $3 billion investment in MGM related to its CityCenter project - a new mega-resort on the Las Vegas Strip. This investment led to a one-time gain for MGM of $1 billion.

"Even while closing on the most historic transaction in our company's history - the CityCenter joint venture and strategic relationship with Dubai World - our dedicated employees delivered exceptional operating results," CEO Terry Lanni said, noting that the company is "ideally positioned to excel domestically and internationally." Though the deal with Dubai World is ironic given that gambling is banned in Dubai, most analysts agree that the partnership is good for MGM because of Dubai World's very deep pockets and extensive experience with real estate projects.

MGM is seeking such partnerships as it attempts to expand its existing Las Vegas holdings but enter into Atlantic City and abroad. MGM now sees itself not as a casino operator but a resort brand, and it is attempting to leverage that brand in new markets.

MGM operates resorts such as the Bellagio, Mandalay Bay and Circus Circus in Las Vegas, the MGM Grand Detroit aptly located in Detroit, and a casino property in the Asian gambling mecca Macau. Though gambling revenues are notoriously unpredictable, MGM is positioning itself strongly across markets through strategic partnerships and may preform accordingly in the coming years.

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2/21/2008 10:09:25 PM UTC  #    Comments [0]  |  Trackback

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Concord Camera Corp. (NDAQ: LENS) has more to worry about than a cold market as activist shareholders are now (in so many words) calling for an outright sale. The camera-maker has experienced steep declines in sales and margins that have resulted in over fifteen consecutive quarters of losses. This prompted the company to pursue its own evaluation of strategic alternatives as many are speculating that a financial